Predictions › Portugal › Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

Primeira LigaSat 10 Oct, 14:30 Portugal time

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara prediction

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Casa PiaHome

0.86 : 1.50

expected goals

Santa ClaraAway

21%Casa Pia

28%Draw

52%Santa Clara

Eagle safe pickSanta Clara or Draw

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara is Santa Clara to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Santa Clara or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction: Santa Clara to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 0-1
Expected goals: Casa Pia 0.9, Santa Clara 1.5
Best bet: Santa Clara or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score: 46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Santa Clara or Draw

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Santa Clara to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.731 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Casa Pia 21%, the draw 28% and Santa Clara 52%. The bookmakers agree and make Santa Clara the favourite at 1.91.
2
Recent form
Casa Pia took 4 points from their last 5 games and Santa Clara took 11 from 5. Santa Clara come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Casa Pia won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Santa Clara won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Casa Pia score 0.6 goals a game and let in 1.7. Santa Clara score 1.4 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Casa Pia games and 8 of Santa Clara games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Casa Pia won 0 and Santa Clara won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Casa Pia 0, Santa Clara 0.
6
The safest bet
Santa Clara or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Casa Piarecent form-3%
Santa Clararecent form+4%

Casa Pia form W L D L LSanta Clara form D W W D WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara: Santa Clara are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Casa Pia host Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga on Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara is Santa Clara to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Santa Clara or Draw at 1.30.

Casa Pia form

Casa Pia have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 12 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Santa Clara form

Santa Clara have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Casa Pia won 0, Santa Clara won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Casa Pia 0, Santa Clara 0.

Our call

We expect Casa Pia to score about 0.9 goals and Santa Clara about 1.5. That points to Santa Clara to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Santa Clara or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is Santa Clara to win and Over 2.5 at 3.73.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Casa Pia	Santa Clara
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	9
Draws	6	7
Losses	11	4
Goals scored	12	27
Goals conceded	34	19
Scored per game	0.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.7	0.9
Home record	1W 4D 5L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	3W 5D 2L
Clean sheets	20%	45%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Casa Pia to win	20%	4.89	4.20	-14.1%
A Draw	27%	3.74	3.20	-14.4%
Santa Clara to win	48%	2.06	1.91	-7.5%
Over 2.5 goals	37%	2.69	2.35	-12.5%
Under 2.5 goals	57%	1.75	1.50	-14.5%
Casa Pia +0.5	46%	2.16	1.80	-16.5%
Santa Clara -0.5	47%	2.11	1.80	-14.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.45
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.37
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.67
Both teams to score	46%	2.19
Casa Pia or Draw	48%	2.07
Santa Clara or Draw	79%	1.26
Casa Pia to win and Over 2.5	10%	10.03
Santa Clara to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.62
Casa Pia clean sheet	22%	4.50
Santa Clara clean sheet	42%	2.37

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-113.4%

1-112.9%

0-210.6%

0-010.1%

1-29.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara is Santa Clara to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Santa Clara or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-2. We expect Casa Pia to score 0.9 goals and Santa Clara 1.5.

Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Casa Pia last 20 games and 9 of Santa Clara last 20.

How are Casa Pia playing?

How are Santa Clara playing?

What happened when Casa Pia and Santa Clara last met?

It ended Casa Pia 0, Santa Clara 0. In the last 2 meetings Casa Pia won 0 and Santa Clara won 1.

What is the best bet for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

Santa Clara or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Casa Pia against Santa Clara. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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