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Predictions › Portugal › Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Primeira LigaFri 30 Oct, 20:15 Portugal time

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Casa PiaHome
0.69 : 2.89
expected goals
Sporting CPAway
6%Casa Pia
13%Draw
82%Sporting
Eagle safe pickSporting CP to win
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP is Sporting CP to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Sporting CP to win at 1.23.

Prediction
Sporting CP to win
Chance
82%
Most likely score
0-2
Expected goals
Casa Pia 0.7, Sporting CP 2.9
Best bet
Sporting CP to win at 1.23
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Sporting CP to win
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sporting CP to win and both score
35% chanceFair price 2.891 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Casa Pia 6%, the draw 13% and Sporting CP 82%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Casa Pia took 4 points from their last 5 games and Sporting CP took 11 from 5. Sporting CP come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Casa Pia won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Sporting CP won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Casa Pia score 0.5 goals a game and let in 1.6. Sporting CP score 2.3 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Casa Pia games and 13 of Sporting CP games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Casa Pia won 0 and Sporting CP won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sporting CP 3, Casa Pia 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Sporting CP to win has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Casa Piarecent form-1%
  • Sportingrecent form+3%
Casa Pia form D L W L DSporting form D W D D WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: Sporting CP are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Casa Pia host Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga on Fri 30 Oct, 20:15 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP is Sporting CP to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Sporting CP to win at 1.23.

Casa Pia form

Casa Pia have 2 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 9 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Sporting CP form

Sporting CP have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Casa Pia won 0, Sporting CP won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sporting CP 3, Casa Pia 0.

Our call

We expect Casa Pia to score about 0.7 goals and Sporting CP about 2.9. That points to Sporting CP to win, with 0-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Sporting CP to win at 1.23. Our bold bet is Sporting CP to win and both score at 2.89.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Casa PiaSporting
Games played2020
Wins212
Draws66
Losses122
Goals scored946
Goals conceded3320
Scored per game0.52.3
Conceded per game1.61.0
Home record0W 4D 6L7W 2D 2L
Away record2W 2D 6L5W 4D 0L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored35%65%
Over 2.5 goals30%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.14
Over 2.5 goals69%1.44
Over 3.5 goals48%2.08
Both teams to score48%2.10
Casa Pia or Draw18%5.45
Sporting CP or Draw94%1.06
Casa Pia to win and Over 2.54%28.00
Sporting CP to win and Over 2.562%1.60
Casa Pia clean sheet6%17.97
Sporting CP clean sheet50%2.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-211.6%
0-311.2%
0-48.1%
1-28.1%
1-37.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP is Sporting CP to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is Sporting CP to win at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

0-2 is the most likely score, followed by 0-3 and 0-4. We expect Casa Pia to score 0.7 goals and Sporting CP 2.9.

Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Casa Pia last 20 games and 13 of Sporting CP last 20.

How are Casa Pia playing?

Casa Pia have 2 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 9 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Sporting CP playing?

Sporting CP have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Casa Pia and Sporting CP last met?

It ended Sporting CP 3, Casa Pia 0. In the last 1 meeting Casa Pia won 0 and Sporting CP won 1.

What is the best bet for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

Sporting CP to win at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Casa Pia against Sporting. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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