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Predictions › Spain › Castellón vs Ceuta
LaLiga 2Sun 4 Oct, 16:30 Spain time

Castellón vs Ceuta prediction

Nou Estadi Castalia

CastellónHome
2.93 : 0.79
expected goals
CeutaAway
80%Castellón
13%Draw
7%Ceuta
Eagle safe pickCastellón to win
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Castellón vs Ceuta is Castellón to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Castellón to win at 1.29.

Prediction
Castellón to win
Chance
80%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Castellón 2.9, Ceuta 0.8
Best bet
Castellón to win at 1.29
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Castellón to win
78% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Castellón to win and both score
35% chanceFair price 2.851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Castellón 80%, the draw 13% and Ceuta 7%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Castellón took 13 points from their last 5 games and Ceuta took 4 from 5. Castellón come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Castellón won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Ceuta won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Castellón score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.0. Ceuta score 1.1 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Castellón games and 11 of Ceuta games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Castellón won 0 and Ceuta won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Ceuta 1, Castellón 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Castellón to win has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Castellónrecent form+6%
  • Ceutarecent form-3%
  • Ceutarest between games-5%
Castellón form W W W W DCeuta form W D L L LHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Castellón vs Ceuta: Castellón are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Castellón host Ceuta in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 4 Oct, 16:30 at Nou Estadi Castalia. Our prediction for Castellón vs Ceuta is Castellón to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Castellón to win at 1.29.

Castellón form

Castellón have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Ceuta form

Ceuta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Castellón won 0, Ceuta won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Ceuta 1, Castellón 1.

Our call

We expect Castellón to score about 2.9 goals and Ceuta about 0.8. That points to Castellón to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Castellón to win at 1.29. Our bold bet is Castellón to win and both score at 2.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CastellónCeuta
Games played2020
Wins115
Draws76
Losses29
Goals scored3621
Goals conceded2037
Scored per game1.81.1
Conceded per game1.01.9
Home record6W 4D 1L3W 4D 4L
Away record5W 3D 1L2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored70%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals89%1.13
Over 2.5 goals72%1.39
Over 3.5 goals51%1.96
Both teams to score52%1.92
Castellón or Draw93%1.07
Ceuta or Draw20%5.08
Castellón to win and Over 2.563%1.58
Ceuta to win and Over 2.54%22.56
Castellón clean sheet45%2.20
Ceuta clean sheet5%18.72

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.4%
3-010.2%
2-18.2%
3-18.0%
4-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Castellón vs Ceuta?

Our prediction for Castellón vs Ceuta is Castellón to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Castellón to win at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Castellón vs Ceuta?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect Castellón to score 2.9 goals and Ceuta 0.8.

Will both teams score in Castellón vs Ceuta?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Castellón last 20 games and 12 of Ceuta last 20.

How are Castellón playing?

Castellón have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Ceuta playing?

Ceuta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Castellón and Ceuta last met?

It ended Ceuta 1, Castellón 1. In the last 2 meetings Castellón won 0 and Ceuta won 0.

What is the best bet for Castellón vs Ceuta?

Castellón to win at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Castellón against Ceuta. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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