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Predictions › Spain › Castellón vs Eldense
LaLiga 2Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 Spain time

Castellón vs Eldense prediction

Nou Estadi Castalia

CastellónHome
2.08 : 0.59
expected goals
EldenseAway
72%Castellón
19%Draw
9%Eldense
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Castellón vs Eldense is Castellón to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Castellón to win
Chance
72%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Castellón 2.1, Eldense 0.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Castellón to win and Over 2.5
41% chanceFair price 2.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Castellón 72%, the draw 19% and Eldense 9%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Castellón took 8 points from their last 5 games and Eldense took 6 from 5. Castellón come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Castellón won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Eldense won 2 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Castellón score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Eldense score 1.0 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Castellón games and 6 of Eldense games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Castellónrecent form+3%
  • Eldenserest between games-2%
Castellón form D W W W LEldense form D L W L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Castellón vs Eldense: Castellón are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Castellón host Eldense in the LaLiga 2 on Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 at Nou Estadi Castalia. Our prediction for Castellón vs Eldense is Castellón to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Castellón form

Castellón have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Eldense form

Eldense have 4 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 13 games, with 13 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Castellón to score about 2.1 goals and Eldense about 0.6. That points to Castellón to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Castellón to win and Over 2.5 at 2.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CastellónEldense
Games played2013
Wins114
Draws62
Losses37
Goals scored3513
Goals conceded1619
Scored per game1.81.0
Conceded per game0.81.5
Home record4W 4D 1L2W 2D 2L
Away record7W 2D 2L2W 0D 5L
Clean sheets40%15%
Both teams scored55%38%
Over 2.5 goals45%46%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.33
Over 2.5 goals50%2.00
Over 3.5 goals28%3.57
Both teams to score40%2.53
Castellón or Draw91%1.10
Eldense or Draw28%3.54
Castellón to win and Over 2.543%2.33
Eldense to win and Over 2.54%24.81
Castellón clean sheet55%1.81
Eldense clean sheet12%8.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-015.0%
1-013.9%
3-010.4%
1-19.0%
2-18.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Castellón vs Eldense?

Our prediction for Castellón vs Eldense is Castellón to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Castellón vs Eldense?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 3-0. We expect Castellón to score 2.1 goals and Eldense 0.6.

Will both teams score in Castellón vs Eldense?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Castellón last 20 games and 5 of Eldense last 13.

How are Castellón playing?

Castellón have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Eldense playing?

Eldense have 4 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 13 games, with 13 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Castellón vs Eldense?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Castellón against Eldense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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