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Predictions › Italy › Catanzaro vs Ascoli
Serie BSat 24 Oct, 15:15 Italy time

Catanzaro vs Ascoli prediction

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

CatanzaroHome
1.41 : 1.03
expected goals
AscoliAway
45%Catanzaro
28%Draw
27%Ascoli
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Ascoli is Catanzaro to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Catanzaro to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Catanzaro 1.4, Ascoli 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Catanzaro 45%, the draw 28% and Ascoli 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Catanzaro took 3 points from their last 5 games and Ascoli took 8 from 5. Ascoli come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Catanzaro won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Ascoli won 1 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Catanzaro score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Ascoli score 1.2 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Catanzaro games and 2 of Ascoli games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Catanzarorecent form-3%
  • Ascolirecent form+1%
Catanzaro form D L W L LAscoli form D W L W DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Catanzaro vs Ascoli: Catanzaro are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Catanzaro host Ascoli in the Serie B on Sat 24 Oct, 15:15 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Ascoli is Catanzaro to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Catanzaro form

Catanzaro have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Ascoli form

Ascoli have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 games, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Catanzaro to score about 1.4 goals and Ascoli about 1.0. That points to Catanzaro to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CatanzaroAscoli
Games played206
Wins53
Draws52
Losses101
Goals scored297
Goals conceded334
Scored per game1.41.2
Conceded per game1.60.7
Home record4W 2D 3L2W 1D 0L
Away record1W 3D 7L1W 1D 1L
Clean sheets20%33%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%33%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.41
Over 2.5 goals44%2.27
Over 3.5 goals23%4.35
Both teams to score49%2.03
Catanzaro or Draw73%1.36
Ascoli or Draw55%1.82
Catanzaro to win and Over 2.525%4.03
Ascoli to win and Over 2.514%7.20
Catanzaro clean sheet36%2.80
Ascoli clean sheet24%4.10

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
1-011.5%
0-09.5%
2-18.9%
2-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Catanzaro vs Ascoli?

Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Ascoli is Catanzaro to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Catanzaro vs Ascoli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Catanzaro to score 1.4 goals and Ascoli 1.0.

Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Ascoli?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Catanzaro last 20 games and 3 of Ascoli last 6.

How are Catanzaro playing?

Catanzaro have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Ascoli playing?

Ascoli have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 games, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Catanzaro vs Ascoli?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Catanzaro against Ascoli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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