Predictions › Italy › Catanzaro vs Mantova

Serie BSun 11 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Catanzaro vs Mantova prediction

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

CatanzaroHome

1.53 : 1.27

expected goals

MantovaAway

43%Catanzaro

27%Draw

31%Mantova

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Mantova is Catanzaro to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Catanzaro to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.5, Mantova 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Catanzaro to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Catanzaro 43%, the draw 27% and Mantova 31%. The bookmakers agree and make Catanzaro the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
Catanzaro took 3 points from their last 5 games and Mantova took 11 from 5. Mantova come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Catanzaro won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Mantova won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Catanzaro score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Mantova score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Catanzaro games and 11 of Mantova games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Catanzaro won 2 and Mantova won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Catanzaro 2, Mantova 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Catanzarorecent form-4%
Mantovarecent form+1%

Catanzaro form L W L L LMantova form D W D L WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Catanzaro vs Mantova: Catanzaro shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Catanzaro host Mantova in the Serie B on Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Mantova is Catanzaro to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Catanzaro form

Catanzaro have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Mantova form

Mantova have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Catanzaro won 2, Mantova won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Catanzaro 2, Mantova 0.

Our call

We expect Catanzaro to score about 1.5 goals and Mantova about 1.3. That points to Catanzaro to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Catanzaro to win and Over 2.5 at 3.82.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Catanzaro	Mantova
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	10
Draws	5	4
Losses	9	6
Goals scored	31	31
Goals conceded	32	25
Scored per game	1.6	1.6
Conceded per game	1.6	1.3
Home record	5W 2D 2L	7W 2D 1L
Away record	1W 3D 7L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Catanzaro to win	40%	2.50	2.30	-8.0%
A Draw	26%	3.87	3.35	-13.3%
Mantova to win	30%	3.33	2.85	-14.5%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.00	1.71	-14.2%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.27	1.95	-14.0%
Catanzaro -0.5	40%	2.53	2.15	-14.9%
Mantova +0.5	55%	1.83	1.56	-15.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.89
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.26
Both teams to score	57%	1.76
Catanzaro or Draw	69%	1.45
Mantova or Draw	57%	1.74
Catanzaro to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.72
Mantova to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.28
Catanzaro clean sheet	28%	3.55
Mantova clean sheet	22%	4.60

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

2-19.0%

1-08.6%

1-27.5%

2-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Catanzaro vs Mantova?

Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Mantova is Catanzaro to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Catanzaro vs Mantova?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Catanzaro to score 1.5 goals and Mantova 1.3.

Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Mantova?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Catanzaro last 20 games and 10 of Mantova last 20.

How are Catanzaro playing?

How are Mantova playing?

What happened when Catanzaro and Mantova last met?

It ended Catanzaro 2, Mantova 0. In the last 2 meetings Catanzaro won 2 and Mantova won 0.

What is the best bet for Catanzaro vs Mantova?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Catanzaro against Mantova. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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