Predictions › Italy › Catanzaro vs Palermo

Serie BSat 21 Nov, 16:15 Italy time

Catanzaro vs Palermo prediction

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

CatanzaroHome

1.31 : 1.91

expected goals

PalermoAway

26%Catanzaro

23%Draw

51%Palermo

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Palermo to win
Chance: 51%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.3, Palermo 1.9
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palermo to win and Over 2.5

36% chanceFair price 2.801 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Catanzaro 26%, the draw 23% and Palermo 51%. The bookmakers agree and make Palermo the favourite at 1.80.
2
Recent form
Catanzaro took 3 points from their last 5 games and Palermo took 11 from 5. Palermo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Catanzaro won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Palermo won 4 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Catanzaro score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.8. Palermo score 1.9 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Catanzaro games and 9 of Palermo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 4 meetings, Catanzaro won 2 and Palermo won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Palermo 2, Catanzaro 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Catanzarorecent form-3%
Palermorecent form+4%

Catanzaro form L D D L DPalermo form D W D W WHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Catanzaro vs Palermo: Palermo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Catanzaro host Palermo in the Serie B on Sat 21 Nov, 16:15 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Catanzaro form

Catanzaro have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Palermo form

Palermo have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Catanzaro won 2, Palermo won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Palermo 2, Catanzaro 0.

Our call

We expect Catanzaro to score about 1.3 goals and Palermo about 1.9. That points to Palermo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Palermo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.80.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Catanzaro	Palermo
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	13
Draws	5	5
Losses	11	2
Goals scored	26	37
Goals conceded	36	22
Scored per game	1.3	1.9
Conceded per game	1.8	1.1
Home record	4W 1D 4L	9W 0D 0L
Away record	0W 4D 7L	4W 5D 2L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Catanzaro to win	25%	3.99	3.70	-7.3%
A Draw	23%	4.38	3.85	-12.1%
Palermo to win	47%	2.12	1.80	-15.1%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.83	1.54	-15.8%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	2.59	2.25	-13.0%
Catanzaro +0.5	45%	2.20	1.87	-15.1%
Palermo -0.5	48%	2.10	1.74	-17.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	62%	1.60
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.49
Both teams to score	63%	1.59
Catanzaro or Draw	49%	2.04
Palermo or Draw	74%	1.34
Catanzaro to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.69
Palermo to win and Over 2.5	37%	2.74
Catanzaro clean sheet	15%	6.76
Palermo clean sheet	27%	3.70

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%

1-29.5%

0-27.3%

0-17.0%

2-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Catanzaro vs Palermo?

Our prediction for Catanzaro vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Catanzaro vs Palermo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Catanzaro to score 1.3 goals and Palermo 1.9.

Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Palermo?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Catanzaro last 20 games and 12 of Palermo last 20.

How are Catanzaro playing?

How are Palermo playing?

What happened when Catanzaro and Palermo last met?

It ended Palermo 2, Catanzaro 0. In the last 4 meetings Catanzaro won 2 and Palermo won 2.

What is the best bet for Catanzaro vs Palermo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Catanzaro against Palermo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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