Predictions › Spain › Celta Vigo vs Alavés

LaLigaSun 18 Oct, 14:15 Spain time

Celta Vigo vs Alavés prediction

Balaidos

Celta VigoHome

1.52 : 1.08

expected goals

AlavésAway

47%Celta Vigo

27%Draw

26%Alavés

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Alavés is Celta Vigo to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction: Celta Vigo to win
Chance: 47%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.5, Alavés 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Celta Vigo to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Celta Vigo 47%, the draw 27% and Alavés 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Celta Vigo the favourite at 2.00.
2
Recent form
Celta Vigo took 6 points from their last 5 games and Alavés took 7 from 5. Alavés come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Celta Vigo won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Alavés won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Celta Vigo score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.5. Alavés score 1.6 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Celta Vigo games and 11 of Alavés games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Celta Vigo won 1 and Alavés won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Celta Vigo 3, Alavés 4.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Celta Vigo form W L D D DAlavés form D L L W WHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Celta Vigo vs Alavés: Celta Vigo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Celta Vigo host Alavés in the LaLiga on Sun 18 Oct, 14:15 at Balaidos. Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Alavés is Celta Vigo to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Celta Vigo form

Celta Vigo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Alavés form

Alavés have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Celta Vigo won 1, Alavés won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Celta Vigo 3, Alavés 4.

Our call

We expect Celta Vigo to score about 1.5 goals and Alavés about 1.1. That points to Celta Vigo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Celta Vigo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.68.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Celta Vigo	Alavés
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	7
Draws	5	6
Losses	10	7
Goals scored	24	32
Goals conceded	30	30
Scored per game	1.2	1.6
Conceded per game	1.5	1.5
Home record	3W 1D 6L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	2W 4D 4L	2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Celta Vigo to win	44%	2.30	2.00	-12.9%
A Draw	27%	3.76	3.35	-10.9%
Alavés to win	26%	3.88	3.75	-3.3%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.32	2.05	-11.8%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	1.99	1.69	-15.1%
Celta Vigo -0.5	45%	2.25	1.87	-16.7%
Alavés +0.5	49%	2.05	1.74	-15.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.07
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.77
Both teams to score	52%	1.91
Celta Vigo or Draw	74%	1.36
Alavés or Draw	53%	1.88
Celta Vigo to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.62
Alavés to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.82
Celta Vigo clean sheet	34%	2.95
Alavés clean sheet	22%	4.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

1-010.5%

2-19.3%

2-08.6%

0-08.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?

Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Alavés is Celta Vigo to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Celta Vigo vs Alavés?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Celta Vigo to score 1.5 goals and Alavés 1.1.

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Alavés?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Celta Vigo last 20 games and 13 of Alavés last 20.

How are Celta Vigo playing?

How are Alavés playing?

What happened when Celta Vigo and Alavés last met?

It ended Celta Vigo 3, Alavés 4. In the last 2 meetings Celta Vigo won 1 and Alavés won 1.

What is the best bet for Celta Vigo vs Alavés?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Celta Vigo against Alavés. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.