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Predictions › Europa League › Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise
Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 20:00 UTC

Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise prediction

Balaidos

Celta VigoHome
1.45 : 1.38
expected goals
Union St.-GilloiseAway
38%Celta Vigo
27%Draw
35%Union SG
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise is Celta Vigo to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Celta Vigo to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Celta Vigo 1.4, Union St.-Gilloise 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win
34% chancePrice 3.35+15.2% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Celta Vigo 38%, the draw 27% and Union St.-Gilloise 35%. The bookmakers agree and make Celta Vigo the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Celta Vigo took 8 points from their last 5 games and Union St.-Gilloise took 11 from 5. Union St.-Gilloise come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Celta Vigo won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Union St.-Gilloise won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Celta Vigo score 1.1 goals a game and let in 0.9. Union St.-Gilloise score 2.5 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Celta Vigo games and 14 of Union St.-Gilloise games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Celta Vigorecent form+1%
  • Union SGrecent form+3%
  • Celta Vigorest between games-5%
  • Union SGrest between games-5%
Celta Vigo form D W W L DUnion SG form D W D D WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise: Celta Vigo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Celta Vigo host Union St.-Gilloise in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 at Balaidos. Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise is Celta Vigo to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Celta Vigo form

Celta Vigo have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Union St.-Gilloise form

Union St.-Gilloise have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Celta Vigo to score about 1.4 goals and Union St.-Gilloise about 1.4. That points to Celta Vigo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 3.35.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Celta VigoUnion SG
Games played2020
Wins613
Draws75
Losses72
Goals scored2249
Goals conceded1917
Scored per game1.12.5
Conceded per game0.90.8
Home record4W 2D 4L7W 4D 0L
Away record2W 5D 3L6W 1D 2L
Clean sheets35%50%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals40%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Celta Vigo to win38%2.662.00-24.8%
A Draw26%3.923.70-5.6%
Union St.-Gilloise to win34%2.913.35+15.2%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.961.65-16.0%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.322.15-7.3%
Celta Vigo -0.544%2.301.91-16.9%
Union St.-Gilloise +0.551%1.971.74-11.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.86
Over 3.5 goals31%3.18
Both teams to score58%1.72
Celta Vigo or Draw65%1.55
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw62%1.62
Celta Vigo to win and Over 2.524%4.14
Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.522%4.51
Celta Vigo clean sheet25%3.98
Union St.-Gilloise clean sheet24%4.25

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
2-18.5%
1-28.2%
1-07.8%
0-17.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise is Celta Vigo to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Celta Vigo to score 1.4 goals and Union St.-Gilloise 1.4.

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Celta Vigo last 20 games and 9 of Union St.-Gilloise last 20.

How are Celta Vigo playing?

Celta Vigo have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Union St.-Gilloise playing?

Union St.-Gilloise have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Celta Vigo vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Celta Vigo against Union SG. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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