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Predictions › Uruguay › Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 11 Oct, 21:30 Uruguay time

Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional prediction

Central Español Fútbol ClubHome
1.04 : 1.45
expected goals
NacionalAway
26%Central Español
28%Draw
46%Nacional
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional is Nacional to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Nacional to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Central Español Fútbol Club 1.0, Nacional 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Nacional to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.971 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Central Español Fútbol Club 26%, the draw 28% and Nacional 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Central Español Fútbol Club took 2 points from their last 5 games and Nacional took 11 from 5. Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Central Español Fútbol Club won 4 of their last 12 games at home. Nacional won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Central Español Fútbol Club score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Nacional score 1.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Central Español Fútbol Club games and 10 of Nacional games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Central Español Fútbol Club won 1 and Nacional won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Nacional 0, Central Español Fútbol Club 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Central Españolrecent form-4%
  • Nacionalrecent form+4%
Central Español form L L D D LNacional form W W D D WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional: Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Central Español Fútbol Club host Nacional in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 11 Oct, 21:30. Our prediction for Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional is Nacional to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Central Español Fútbol Club form

Central Español Fútbol Club have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Nacional form

Nacional have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Central Español Fútbol Club won 1, Nacional won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Nacional 0, Central Español Fútbol Club 1.

Our call

We expect Central Español Fútbol Club to score about 1.0 goals and Nacional about 1.4. That points to Nacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Nacional to win and Over 2.5 at 3.97.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Central EspañolNacional
Games played2020
Wins59
Draws65
Losses96
Goals scored1822
Goals conceded2823
Scored per game0.91.1
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record4W 4D 4L6W 3D 2L
Away record1W 2D 5L3W 2D 4L
Clean sheets30%40%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals45%2.20
Over 3.5 goals24%4.15
Both teams to score50%1.99
Central Español Fútbol Club or Draw54%1.84
Nacional or Draw74%1.36
Central Español Fútbol Club to win and Over 2.514%7.13
Nacional to win and Over 2.526%3.88
Central Español Fútbol Club clean sheet23%4.26
Nacional clean sheet35%2.83

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
0-111.2%
1-29.1%
0-09.0%
0-28.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional?

Our prediction for Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional is Nacional to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Central Español Fútbol Club to score 1.0 goals and Nacional 1.4.

Will both teams score in Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Central Español Fútbol Club last 20 games and 9 of Nacional last 20.

How are Central Español Fútbol Club playing?

Central Español Fútbol Club have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Nacional playing?

Nacional have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Central Español Fútbol Club and Nacional last met?

It ended Nacional 0, Central Español Fútbol Club 1. In the last 1 meeting Central Español Fútbol Club won 1 and Nacional won 0.

What is the best bet for Central Español Fútbol Club vs Nacional?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Central Español against Nacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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