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Predictions › Uruguay › Cerro Largo vs Boston River
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 25 Oct, 19:00 Uruguay time

Cerro Largo vs Boston River prediction

Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

Cerro LargoHome
1.37 : 1.13
expected goals
Boston RiverAway
42%Cerro Largo
28%Draw
30%Boston River
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cerro Largo vs Boston River is Cerro Largo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Cerro Largo to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Cerro Largo 1.4, Boston River 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cerro Largo 42%, the draw 28% and Boston River 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cerro Largo took 1 point from their last 5 games and Boston River took 4 from 5. Boston River come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cerro Largo won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Boston River won 3 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cerro Largo score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Boston River score 1.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Cerro Largo games and 12 of Boston River games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Cerro Largo won 1 and Boston River won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Cerro Largo 3, Boston River 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cerro Largorecent form-4%
  • Boston Riverrecent form-4%
Cerro Largo form D L L L DBoston River form D D L L LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cerro Largo vs Boston River: Cerro Largo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cerro Largo host Boston River in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 25 Oct, 19:00 at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. Our prediction for Cerro Largo vs Boston River is Cerro Largo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Cerro Largo form

Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Boston River form

Boston River have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Cerro Largo won 1, Boston River won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Cerro Largo 3, Boston River 0.

Our call

We expect Cerro Largo to score about 1.4 goals and Boston River about 1.1. That points to Cerro Largo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.43.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Cerro LargoBoston River
Games played2020
Wins45
Draws75
Losses910
Goals scored1622
Goals conceded2230
Scored per game0.81.1
Conceded per game1.11.5
Home record2W 5D 4L2W 4D 2L
Away record2W 2D 5L3W 1D 8L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals25%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals46%2.19
Over 3.5 goals24%4.11
Both teams to score51%1.95
Cerro Largo or Draw70%1.43
Boston River or Draw58%1.71
Cerro Largo to win and Over 2.523%4.28
Boston River to win and Over 2.516%6.08
Cerro Largo clean sheet32%3.10
Boston River clean sheet25%3.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
1-010.5%
0-08.9%
2-18.7%
0-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cerro Largo vs Boston River?

Our prediction for Cerro Largo vs Boston River is Cerro Largo to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Cerro Largo vs Boston River?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Cerro Largo to score 1.4 goals and Boston River 1.1.

Will both teams score in Cerro Largo vs Boston River?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Cerro Largo last 20 games and 12 of Boston River last 20.

How are Cerro Largo playing?

Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are Boston River playing?

Boston River have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Cerro Largo and Boston River last met?

It ended Cerro Largo 3, Boston River 0. In the last 3 meetings Cerro Largo won 1 and Boston River won 1.

What is the best bet for Cerro Largo vs Boston River?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cerro Largo against Boston River. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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