EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Uruguay › Cerro Largo vs Progreso
Uruguayan Primera DivisionFri 13 Nov, 20:00 Uruguay time

Cerro Largo vs Progreso prediction

Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

Cerro LargoHome
1.13 : 0.86
expected goals
ProgresoAway
41%Cerro Largo
32%Draw
27%Progreso
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso is Cerro Largo to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
Cerro Largo to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Cerro Largo 1.1, Progreso 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
15% chanceFair price 6.851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cerro Largo 41%, the draw 32% and Progreso 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cerro Largo took 4 points from their last 5 games and Progreso took 7 from 5. Progreso come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cerro Largo won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Progreso won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cerro Largo score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Progreso score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Cerro Largo games and 8 of Progreso games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Cerro Largo won 1 and Progreso won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Progreso 0, Cerro Largo 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cerro Largorecent form-1%
  • Progresorecent form+1%
Cerro Largo form D W D L LProgreso form D W W D LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cerro Largo vs Progreso: Cerro Largo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cerro Largo host Progreso in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Fri 13 Nov, 20:00 at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. Our prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso is Cerro Largo to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Cerro Largo form

Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Progreso form

Progreso have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Cerro Largo won 1, Progreso won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Progreso 0, Cerro Largo 1.

Our call

We expect Cerro Largo to score about 1.1 goals and Progreso about 0.9. That points to Cerro Largo to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Cerro LargoProgreso
Games played2020
Wins48
Draws81
Losses811
Goals scored1719
Goals conceded2226
Scored per game0.80.9
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record3W 5D 2L4W 0D 5L
Away record1W 3D 6L4W 1D 6L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored45%45%
Over 2.5 goals25%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals60%1.67
Over 2.5 goals32%3.11
Over 3.5 goals14%7.06
Both teams to score40%2.50
Cerro Largo or Draw73%1.37
Progreso or Draw59%1.69
Cerro Largo to win and Over 2.518%5.69
Progreso to win and Over 2.511%9.14
Cerro Largo clean sheet42%2.37
Progreso clean sheet32%3.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.6%
0-014.4%
1-114.1%
0-111.0%
2-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cerro Largo vs Progreso?

Our prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso is Cerro Largo to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Cerro Largo to score 1.1 goals and Progreso 0.9.

Will both teams score in Cerro Largo vs Progreso?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Cerro Largo last 20 games and 9 of Progreso last 20.

How are Cerro Largo playing?

Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Progreso playing?

Progreso have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Cerro Largo and Progreso last met?

It ended Progreso 0, Cerro Largo 1. In the last 1 meeting Cerro Largo won 1 and Progreso won 0.

What is the best bet for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cerro Largo against Progreso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.