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Predictions › Uruguay › Cerro vs Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera DivisionFri 16 Oct, 22:00 Uruguay time

Cerro vs Cerro Largo prediction

Estadio Luis Tróccoli

CerroHome
0.96 : 0.58
expected goals
Cerro LargoAway
43%Cerro
37%Draw
21%Cerro Largo
Eagle safe pickUnder 2.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cerro vs Cerro Largo is Cerro to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Cerro to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Cerro 1.0, Cerro Largo 0.6
Best bet
Under 2.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
28%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 2.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
22% chanceFair price 4.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cerro 43%, the draw 37% and Cerro Largo 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cerro took 7 points from their last 5 games and Cerro Largo took 1 from 5. Cerro come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cerro won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Cerro Largo won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cerro score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Cerro Largo score 0.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Cerro games and 5 of Cerro Largo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Cerro won 0 and Cerro Largo won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Cerro Largo 2, Cerro 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 2.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cerro Largorecent form-6%
  • Cerrorest between games-2%
  • Cerro Largorest between games-2%
Cerro form L D L W WCerro Largo form L L L D LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cerro vs Cerro Largo: Cerro shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cerro host Cerro Largo in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Fri 16 Oct, 22:00 at Estadio Luis Tróccoli. Our prediction for Cerro vs Cerro Largo is Cerro to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.30.

Cerro form

Cerro have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Cerro Largo form

Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Cerro won 0, Cerro Largo won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Cerro Largo 2, Cerro 0.

Our call

We expect Cerro to score about 1.0 goals and Cerro Largo about 0.6. That points to Cerro to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 4.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CerroCerro Largo
Games played2020
Wins74
Draws47
Losses99
Goals scored1716
Goals conceded2622
Scored per game0.80.8
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record4W 1D 4L2W 5D 3L
Away record3W 3D 5L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored45%40%
Over 2.5 goals40%25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals46%2.15
Over 2.5 goals20%4.93
Over 3.5 goals7%13.98
Both teams to score28%3.57
Cerro or Draw79%1.26
Cerro Largo or Draw57%1.74
Cerro to win and Over 2.513%7.69
Cerro Largo to win and Over 2.55%18.20
Cerro clean sheet56%1.79
Cerro Largo clean sheet38%2.62

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-022.0%
1-019.8%
1-112.7%
0-111.7%
2-09.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

Our prediction for Cerro vs Cerro Largo is Cerro to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Cerro to score 1.0 goals and Cerro Largo 0.6.

Will both teams score in Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

Both teams to score has a 28% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Cerro last 20 games and 8 of Cerro Largo last 20.

How are Cerro playing?

Cerro have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Cerro Largo playing?

Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Cerro and Cerro Largo last met?

It ended Cerro Largo 2, Cerro 0. In the last 2 meetings Cerro won 0 and Cerro Largo won 1.

What is the best bet for Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

Under 2.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cerro against Cerro Largo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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