EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Uruguay › Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 4 Oct, 19:00 Uruguay time

Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers prediction

Estadio Luis Tróccoli

CerroHome
1.31 : 0.79
expected goals
Montevideo WanderersAway
48%Cerro
30%Draw
22%Wanderers
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers is Cerro to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Cerro to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Cerro 1.3, Montevideo Wanderers 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
15% chanceFair price 6.551 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cerro 48%, the draw 30% and Montevideo Wanderers 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cerro took 8 points from their last 5 games and Montevideo Wanderers took 5 from 5. Cerro come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cerro won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Montevideo Wanderers won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cerro score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. Montevideo Wanderers score 1.3 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Cerro games and 8 of Montevideo Wanderers games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Cerro won 1 and Montevideo Wanderers won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Montevideo Wanderers 3, Cerro 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cerrorecent form+1%
  • Wanderersrecent form-1%
  • Cerrorest between games-5%
Cerro form D L W W DWanderers form D D L W LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers: Cerro are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cerro host Montevideo Wanderers in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 4 Oct, 19:00 at Estadio Luis Tróccoli. Our prediction for Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers is Cerro to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Cerro form

Cerro have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Montevideo Wanderers form

Montevideo Wanderers have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Cerro won 1, Montevideo Wanderers won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Montevideo Wanderers 3, Cerro 0.

Our call

We expect Cerro to score about 1.3 goals and Montevideo Wanderers about 0.8. That points to Cerro to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.55.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CerroWanderers
Games played2020
Wins78
Draws56
Losses86
Goals scored1826
Goals conceded2525
Scored per game0.91.3
Conceded per game1.31.3
Home record4W 1D 3L4W 4D 1L
Away record3W 4D 5L4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets30%40%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals40%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.59
Over 2.5 goals35%2.85
Over 3.5 goals16%6.19
Both teams to score41%2.46
Cerro or Draw78%1.28
Montevideo Wanderers or Draw52%1.93
Cerro to win and Over 2.522%4.48
Montevideo Wanderers to win and Over 2.59%11.05
Cerro clean sheet45%2.21
Montevideo Wanderers clean sheet27%3.71

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.3%
1-113.4%
0-013.0%
2-010.5%
0-18.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Our prediction for Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers is Cerro to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Cerro to score 1.3 goals and Montevideo Wanderers 0.8.

Will both teams score in Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Cerro last 20 games and 11 of Montevideo Wanderers last 20.

How are Cerro playing?

Cerro have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Montevideo Wanderers playing?

Montevideo Wanderers have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Cerro and Montevideo Wanderers last met?

It ended Montevideo Wanderers 3, Cerro 0. In the last 2 meetings Cerro won 1 and Montevideo Wanderers won 1.

What is the best bet for Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cerro against Wanderers. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.