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Predictions › Italy › Cesena vs Empoli
Serie BTue 27 Oct, 19:00 Italy time

Cesena vs Empoli prediction

Estadio Dino Manuzzi

CesenaHome
1.61 : 1.19
expected goals
EmpoliAway
46%Cesena
26%Draw
28%Empoli
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cesena vs Empoli is Cesena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Cesena to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Cesena 1.6, Empoli 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cesena to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cesena 46%, the draw 26% and Empoli 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cesena took 6 points from their last 5 games and Empoli took 4 from 5. Cesena come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cesena won 1 of their last 11 games at home. Empoli won 1 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cesena score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.7. Empoli score 1.2 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Cesena games and 9 of Empoli games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Cesena won 0 and Empoli won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Empoli 1, Cesena 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cesenarecent form+1%
  • Empolirecent form-3%
  • Empolirest between games-5%
Cesena form D D D D WEmpoli form D L L L WHome edge in this league 30% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cesena vs Empoli: Cesena are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cesena host Empoli in the Serie B on Tue 27 Oct, 19:00 at Estadio Dino Manuzzi. Our prediction for Cesena vs Empoli is Cesena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Cesena form

Cesena have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 6 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, W, newest first.

Empoli form

Empoli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 7 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Cesena won 0, Empoli won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Empoli 1, Cesena 1.

Our call

We expect Cesena to score about 1.6 goals and Empoli about 1.2. That points to Cesena to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Cesena to win and Over 2.5 at 3.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CesenaEmpoli
Games played2020
Wins24
Draws107
Losses89
Goals scored2024
Goals conceded3431
Scored per game1.01.2
Conceded per game1.71.6
Home record1W 6D 4L3W 3D 2L
Away record1W 4D 4L1W 4D 7L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.88
Over 3.5 goals31%3.24
Both teams to score56%1.77
Cesena or Draw72%1.38
Empoli or Draw54%1.87
Cesena to win and Over 2.529%3.39
Empoli to win and Over 2.517%5.99
Cesena clean sheet30%3.29
Empoli clean sheet20%5.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
2-19.4%
1-09.1%
2-07.9%
1-26.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cesena vs Empoli?

Our prediction for Cesena vs Empoli is Cesena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Cesena vs Empoli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Cesena to score 1.6 goals and Empoli 1.2.

Will both teams score in Cesena vs Empoli?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Cesena last 20 games and 13 of Empoli last 20.

How are Cesena playing?

Cesena have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 6 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Empoli playing?

Empoli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 7 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Cesena and Empoli last met?

It ended Empoli 1, Cesena 1. In the last 2 meetings Cesena won 0 and Empoli won 1.

What is the best bet for Cesena vs Empoli?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cesena against Empoli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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