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Predictions › Italy › Cesena vs US Avellino
Serie BSun 18 Oct, 15:15 Italy time

Cesena vs US Avellino prediction

Estadio Dino Manuzzi

CesenaHome
1.59 : 1.19
expected goals
US AvellinoAway
46%Cesena
26%Draw
28%Avellino
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cesena vs US Avellino is Cesena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Cesena to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Cesena 1.6, US Avellino 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cesena to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.521 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cesena 46%, the draw 26% and US Avellino 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cesena took 7 points from their last 5 games and US Avellino took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cesena won 1 of their last 11 games at home. US Avellino won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cesena score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.8. US Avellino score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Cesena games and 8 of US Avellino games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Cesena won 1 and US Avellino won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended US Avellino 3, Cesena 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cesenarecent form+1%
Cesena form D D D W DAvellino form L D W W LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cesena vs US Avellino: Cesena are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cesena host US Avellino in the Serie B on Sun 18 Oct, 15:15 at Estadio Dino Manuzzi. Our prediction for Cesena vs US Avellino is Cesena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Cesena form

Cesena have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 6 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, D, newest first.

US Avellino form

US Avellino have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Cesena won 1, US Avellino won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished US Avellino 3, Cesena 1.

Our call

We expect Cesena to score about 1.6 goals and US Avellino about 1.2. That points to Cesena to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Cesena to win and Over 2.5 at 3.52.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CesenaAvellino
Games played2020
Wins28
Draws104
Losses88
Goals scored2121
Goals conceded3524
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.81.2
Home record1W 6D 4L5W 3D 2L
Away record1W 4D 4L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored65%40%
Over 2.5 goals50%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.30
Both teams to score56%1.78
Cesena or Draw72%1.39
US Avellino or Draw54%1.85
Cesena to win and Over 2.529%3.47
US Avellino to win and Over 2.517%5.96
Cesena clean sheet30%3.28
US Avellino clean sheet20%4.89

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
2-19.3%
1-09.2%
2-07.8%
1-27.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cesena vs US Avellino?

Our prediction for Cesena vs US Avellino is Cesena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Cesena vs US Avellino?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Cesena to score 1.6 goals and US Avellino 1.2.

Will both teams score in Cesena vs US Avellino?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Cesena last 20 games and 8 of US Avellino last 20.

How are Cesena playing?

Cesena have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 6 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, D, newest first.

How are US Avellino playing?

US Avellino have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Cesena and US Avellino last met?

It ended US Avellino 3, Cesena 1. In the last 2 meetings Cesena won 1 and US Avellino won 1.

What is the best bet for Cesena vs US Avellino?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cesena against Avellino. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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