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Predictions › Spain › Ceuta vs CD Sabadell
LaLiga 2Sat 10 Oct, 14:15 Spain time

Ceuta vs CD Sabadell prediction

Estadio Alfonso Murube

CeutaHome
1.02 : 0.86
expected goals
CD SabadellAway
38%Ceuta
34%Draw
29%CD Sabadell
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ceuta vs CD Sabadell is Ceuta to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
Ceuta to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Ceuta 1.0, CD Sabadell 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
37%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
16% chanceFair price 6.181 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Ceuta 38%, the draw 34% and CD Sabadell 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Ceuta took 4 points from their last 5 games and CD Sabadell took 10 from 5. CD Sabadell come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Ceuta won 3 of their last 11 games at home. CD Sabadell won 0 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Ceuta score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.9. CD Sabadell score 1.1 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Ceuta games and 2 of CD Sabadell games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ceutarecent form-3%
  • CD Sabadellrecent form+3%
Ceuta form W D L L LCD Sabadell form D W L W WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ceuta vs CD Sabadell: Ceuta shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ceuta host CD Sabadell in the LaLiga 2 on Sat 10 Oct, 14:15 at Estadio Alfonso Murube. Our prediction for Ceuta vs CD Sabadell is Ceuta to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Ceuta form

Ceuta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

CD Sabadell form

CD Sabadell have 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 7 games, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Ceuta to score about 1.0 goals and CD Sabadell about 0.9. That points to Ceuta to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 6.18.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CeutaCD Sabadell
Games played207
Wins53
Draws63
Losses91
Goals scored218
Goals conceded376
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.90.9
Home record3W 4D 4L3W 0D 0L
Away record2W 2D 5L0W 3D 1L
Clean sheets20%43%
Both teams scored60%43%
Over 2.5 goals55%29%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals57%1.77
Over 2.5 goals29%3.46
Over 3.5 goals12%8.30
Both teams to score37%2.67
Ceuta or Draw71%1.41
CD Sabadell or Draw62%1.60
Ceuta to win and Over 2.515%6.78
CD Sabadell to win and Over 2.511%9.16
Ceuta clean sheet42%2.35
CD Sabadell clean sheet36%2.76

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-016.2%
1-014.8%
1-114.2%
0-112.4%
2-07.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ceuta vs CD Sabadell?

Our prediction for Ceuta vs CD Sabadell is Ceuta to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Ceuta vs CD Sabadell?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Ceuta to score 1.0 goals and CD Sabadell 0.9.

Will both teams score in Ceuta vs CD Sabadell?

Both teams to score has a 37% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Ceuta last 20 games and 3 of CD Sabadell last 7.

How are Ceuta playing?

Ceuta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

How are CD Sabadell playing?

CD Sabadell have 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 7 games, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Ceuta vs CD Sabadell?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ceuta against CD Sabadell. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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