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Predictions › Spain › Ceuta vs Real Oviedo
LaLiga 2Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 Spain time

Ceuta vs Real Oviedo prediction

Estadio Alfonso Murube

CeutaHome
1.42 : 1.42
expected goals
Real OviedoAway
37%Ceuta
27%Draw
37%Real Oviedo
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Oviedo is Ceuta to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Ceuta to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Ceuta 1.4, Real Oviedo 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Ceuta 37%, the draw 27% and Real Oviedo 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Ceuta took 5 points from their last 5 games and Real Oviedo took 7 from 5. Real Oviedo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Ceuta won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Real Oviedo won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Ceuta score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.8. Real Oviedo score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Ceuta games and 8 of Real Oviedo games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ceutarecent form-1%
Ceuta form D W D L LReal Oviedo form L W L W DHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ceuta vs Real Oviedo: Ceuta shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ceuta host Real Oviedo in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 at Estadio Alfonso Murube. Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Oviedo is Ceuta to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Ceuta form

Ceuta have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Real Oviedo form

Real Oviedo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Ceuta to score about 1.4 goals and Real Oviedo about 1.4. That points to Ceuta to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CeutaReal Oviedo
Games played2020
Wins56
Draws75
Losses89
Goals scored2118
Goals conceded3625
Scored per game1.10.9
Conceded per game1.81.3
Home record3W 4D 3L3W 4D 3L
Away record2W 3D 5L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets20%45%
Both teams scored60%30%
Over 2.5 goals50%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.86
Over 3.5 goals32%3.17
Both teams to score58%1.72
Ceuta or Draw63%1.58
Real Oviedo or Draw63%1.58
Ceuta to win and Over 2.523%4.30
Real Oviedo to win and Over 2.523%4.32
Ceuta clean sheet24%4.12
Real Oviedo clean sheet24%4.13

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
2-18.4%
1-28.4%
1-07.6%
0-17.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ceuta vs Real Oviedo?

Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Oviedo is Ceuta to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Ceuta vs Real Oviedo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Ceuta to score 1.4 goals and Real Oviedo 1.4.

Will both teams score in Ceuta vs Real Oviedo?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Ceuta last 20 games and 6 of Real Oviedo last 20.

How are Ceuta playing?

Ceuta have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Real Oviedo playing?

Real Oviedo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Ceuta vs Real Oviedo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ceuta against Real Oviedo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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