Predictions › Spain › Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II

LaLiga 2Sat 26 Sept, 12:00 Spain time

Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II prediction

Estadio Alfonso Murube

CeutaHome

1.22 : 1.49

expected goals

Real Sociedad IIAway

30%Ceuta

27%Draw

43%Real Sociedad II

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II is Real Sociedad II to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Real Sociedad II to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Ceuta 1.2, Real Sociedad II 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Ceuta 30%, the draw 27% and Real Sociedad II 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Ceuta took 0 points from their last 5 games and Real Sociedad II took 8 from 5. Real Sociedad II come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Ceuta won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Real Sociedad II won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Ceuta score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.9. Real Sociedad II score 1.2 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Ceuta games and 10 of Real Sociedad II games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Ceuta won 1 and Real Sociedad II won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Ceuta 0, Real Sociedad II 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Home edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II: Real Sociedad II shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ceuta host Real Sociedad II in the LaLiga 2 on Sat 26 Sept, 12:00 at Estadio Alfonso Murube. Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II is Real Sociedad II to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Ceuta form

Ceuta have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Real Sociedad II form

Real Sociedad II have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Ceuta won 1, Real Sociedad II won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Ceuta 0, Real Sociedad II 0.

Our call

We expect Ceuta to score about 1.2 goals and Real Sociedad II about 1.5. That points to Real Sociedad II to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.79.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Ceuta	Real Sociedad II
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	5
Draws	5	6
Losses	10	9
Goals scored	18	24
Goals conceded	39	31
Scored per game	0.9	1.2
Conceded per game	1.9	1.6
Home record	2W 3D 4L	1W 4D 5L
Away record	3W 2D 6L	4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.97
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.48
Both teams to score	55%	1.81
Ceuta or Draw	57%	1.74
Real Sociedad II or Draw	70%	1.44
Ceuta to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.57
Real Sociedad II to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.83
Ceuta clean sheet	23%	4.42
Real Sociedad II clean sheet	30%	3.38

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%

0-19.2%

1-29.0%

1-07.4%

0-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II?

Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II is Real Sociedad II to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Ceuta to score 1.2 goals and Real Sociedad II 1.5.

Will both teams score in Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Ceuta last 20 games and 12 of Real Sociedad II last 20.

How are Ceuta playing?

How are Real Sociedad II playing?

What happened when Ceuta and Real Sociedad II last met?

It ended Ceuta 0, Real Sociedad II 0. In the last 2 meetings Ceuta won 1 and Real Sociedad II won 0.

What is the best bet for Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ceuta against Real Sociedad II. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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