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Predictions › Spain › Ceuta vs Real Valladolid
LaLiga 2Sun 20 Sept, 14:15 Spain time

Ceuta vs Real Valladolid prediction

Estadio Alfonso Murube

CeutaHome
1.25 : 1.02
expected goals
Real ValladolidAway
41%Ceuta
30%Draw
30%Valladolid
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Valladolid is Ceuta to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Ceuta to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Ceuta 1.3, Real Valladolid 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Ceuta 41%, the draw 30% and Real Valladolid 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Ceuta took 0 points from their last 5 games and Real Valladolid took 4 from 5. Real Valladolid come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Ceuta won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Real Valladolid won 0 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Ceuta score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.9. Real Valladolid score 1.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Ceuta games and 7 of Real Valladolid games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Ceuta won 0 and Real Valladolid won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Ceuta 0, Real Valladolid 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ceutarecent form-7%
  • Valladolidrecent form-3%
  • Ceutarest between games-5%
Ceuta form L L L L LValladolid form W D L L LHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ceuta vs Real Valladolid: Ceuta shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ceuta host Real Valladolid in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 20 Sept, 14:15 at Estadio Alfonso Murube. Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Valladolid is Ceuta to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

Ceuta form

Ceuta have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Real Valladolid form

Real Valladolid have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Ceuta won 0, Real Valladolid won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Ceuta 0, Real Valladolid 3.

Our call

We expect Ceuta to score about 1.3 goals and Real Valladolid about 1.0. That points to Ceuta to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CeutaValladolid
Games played2020
Wins56
Draws54
Losses1010
Goals scored1820
Goals conceded3925
Scored per game0.91.0
Conceded per game1.91.3
Home record2W 3D 4L6W 1D 2L
Away record3W 2D 6L0W 3D 8L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored50%35%
Over 2.5 goals55%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals67%1.49
Over 2.5 goals40%2.52
Over 3.5 goals19%5.13
Both teams to score46%2.15
Ceuta or Draw70%1.42
Real Valladolid or Draw59%1.68
Ceuta to win and Over 2.520%4.89
Real Valladolid to win and Over 2.514%6.98
Ceuta clean sheet36%2.78
Real Valladolid clean sheet29%3.48

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-012.1%
0-011.1%
0-19.8%
2-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ceuta vs Real Valladolid?

Our prediction for Ceuta vs Real Valladolid is Ceuta to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Ceuta vs Real Valladolid?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Ceuta to score 1.3 goals and Real Valladolid 1.0.

Will both teams score in Ceuta vs Real Valladolid?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Ceuta last 20 games and 7 of Real Valladolid last 20.

How are Ceuta playing?

Ceuta have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Real Valladolid playing?

Real Valladolid have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Ceuta and Real Valladolid last met?

It ended Ceuta 0, Real Valladolid 3. In the last 1 meeting Ceuta won 0 and Real Valladolid won 1.

What is the best bet for Ceuta vs Real Valladolid?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ceuta against Valladolid. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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