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Predictions › Spain › Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón
LaLiga 2Sun 1 Nov, 15:15 Spain time

Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón prediction

Estadio Alfonso Murube

CeutaHome
1.14 : 1.45
expected goals
Sporting GijónAway
29%Ceuta
28%Draw
44%Gijón
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón is Sporting Gijón to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Sporting Gijón to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Ceuta 1.1, Sporting Gijón 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.611 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Ceuta 29%, the draw 28% and Sporting Gijón 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Ceuta took 5 points from their last 5 games and Sporting Gijón took 12 from 5. Sporting Gijón come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Ceuta won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Sporting Gijón won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Ceuta score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.7. Sporting Gijón score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Ceuta games and 11 of Sporting Gijón games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Ceuta won 1 and Sporting Gijón won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sporting Gijón 1, Ceuta 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Gijónrecent form+3%
Ceuta form D L D W DGijón form D W W L WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón: Sporting Gijón shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ceuta host Sporting Gijón in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 1 Nov, 15:15 at Estadio Alfonso Murube. Our prediction for Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón is Sporting Gijón to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Ceuta form

Ceuta have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Sporting Gijón form

Sporting Gijón have 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Ceuta won 1, Sporting Gijón won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sporting Gijón 1, Ceuta 2.

Our call

We expect Ceuta to score about 1.1 goals and Sporting Gijón about 1.4. That points to Sporting Gijón to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.61.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CeutaGijón
Games played2020
Wins411
Draws71
Losses98
Goals scored1928
Goals conceded3423
Scored per game0.91.4
Conceded per game1.71.1
Home record2W 4D 5L6W 1D 3L
Away record2W 3D 4L5W 0D 5L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.83
Both teams to score53%1.90
Ceuta or Draw56%1.77
Sporting Gijón or Draw71%1.41
Ceuta to win and Over 2.516%6.16
Sporting Gijón to win and Over 2.525%3.93
Ceuta clean sheet23%4.26
Sporting Gijón clean sheet32%3.12

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
0-110.2%
1-29.0%
0-08.3%
0-27.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón?

Our prediction for Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón is Sporting Gijón to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Ceuta to score 1.1 goals and Sporting Gijón 1.4.

Will both teams score in Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Ceuta last 20 games and 10 of Sporting Gijón last 20.

How are Ceuta playing?

Ceuta have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Sporting Gijón playing?

Sporting Gijón have 11 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Ceuta and Sporting Gijón last met?

It ended Sporting Gijón 1, Ceuta 2. In the last 1 meeting Ceuta won 1 and Sporting Gijón won 0.

What is the best bet for Ceuta vs Sporting Gijón?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ceuta against Gijón. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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