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Predictions › Brazil › Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR
BrasileiraoMon 12 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR prediction

Arena Condá

ChapecoenseHome
1.39 : 2.22
expected goals
Athletico-PRAway
23%Chapecoense
21%Draw
56%Athletico-PR
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
Athletico-PR to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-2
Expected goals
Chapecoense 1.4, Athletico-PR 2.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
67%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
86% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5
41% chanceFair price 2.441 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chapecoense 23%, the draw 21% and Athletico-PR 56%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chapecoense took 7 points from their last 5 games and Athletico-PR took 8 from 5. Athletico-PR come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chapecoense won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Athletico-PR won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Chapecoense score 1.0 goals a game and let in 2.1. Athletico-PR score 1.4 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Chapecoense games and 10 of Athletico-PR games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Chapecoense won 0 and Athletico-PR won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Athletico-PR 2, Chapecoense 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Athletico-PRrecent form+1%
Chapecoense form D L W L WAthletico-PR form W D L D WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR: Athletico-PR are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chapecoense host Athletico-PR in the Brasileirao on Mon 12 Oct, 22:30 at Arena Condá. Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Athletico-PR form

Athletico-PR have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Chapecoense won 0, Athletico-PR won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Athletico-PR 2, Chapecoense 0.

Our call

We expect Chapecoense to score about 1.4 goals and Athletico-PR about 2.2. That points to Athletico-PR to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5 at 2.44.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChapecoenseAthletico-PR
Games played2020
Wins29
Draws56
Losses135
Goals scored2029
Goals conceded4224
Scored per game1.01.4
Conceded per game2.11.2
Home record1W 2D 6L5W 4D 0L
Away record1W 3D 7L4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets5%30%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals65%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.14
Over 2.5 goals70%1.43
Over 3.5 goals49%2.06
Both teams to score67%1.48
Chapecoense or Draw44%2.27
Athletico-PR or Draw77%1.30
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.517%5.86
Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.544%2.29
Chapecoense clean sheet11%9.20
Athletico-PR clean sheet25%4.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-29.3%
1-18.9%
1-36.9%
0-26.7%
2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR?

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR is Athletico-PR to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 1-3. We expect Chapecoense to score 1.4 goals and Athletico-PR 2.2.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR?

Both teams to score has a 67% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Chapecoense last 20 games and 11 of Athletico-PR last 20.

How are Chapecoense playing?

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Athletico-PR playing?

Athletico-PR have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Chapecoense and Athletico-PR last met?

It ended Athletico-PR 2, Chapecoense 0. In the last 1 meeting Chapecoense won 0 and Athletico-PR won 1.

What is the best bet for Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chapecoense against Athletico-PR. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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