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Predictions › Brazil › Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro
BrasileiraoSun 22 Nov, 00:00 Brazil time

Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro prediction

Arena Condá

ChapecoenseHome
1.37 : 2.63
expected goals
CruzeiroAway
18%Chapecoense
18%Draw
64%Cruzeiro
Eagle safe pickCruzeiro or Draw
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro is Cruzeiro to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.22.

Prediction
Cruzeiro to win
Chance
64%
Most likely score
1-2
Expected goals
Chapecoense 1.4, Cruzeiro 2.6
Best bet
Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.22
Both teams to score
70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Cruzeiro or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cruzeiro to win and both score
40% chanceFair price 2.521 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chapecoense 18%, the draw 18% and Cruzeiro 64%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chapecoense took 3 points from their last 5 games and Cruzeiro took 12 from 5. Cruzeiro come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chapecoense won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Cruzeiro won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Chapecoense score 1.0 goals a game and let in 2.1. Cruzeiro score 1.9 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Chapecoense games and 13 of Cruzeiro games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Chapecoense won 0 and Cruzeiro won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cruzeiro 2, Chapecoense 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Cruzeiro or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Chapecoenserecent form-3%
  • Cruzeirorecent form+4%
Chapecoense form D L W L LCruzeiro form W W W W LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro: Cruzeiro are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chapecoense host Cruzeiro in the Brasileirao on Sun 22 Nov, 00:00 at Arena Condá. Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro is Cruzeiro to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.22.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Cruzeiro form

Cruzeiro have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Chapecoense won 0, Cruzeiro won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cruzeiro 2, Chapecoense 1.

Our call

We expect Chapecoense to score about 1.4 goals and Cruzeiro about 2.6. That points to Cruzeiro to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Cruzeiro to win and both score at 2.52.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChapecoenseCruzeiro
Games played2020
Wins313
Draws42
Losses135
Goals scored2038
Goals conceded4224
Scored per game1.01.9
Conceded per game2.11.2
Home record2W 1D 5L7W 2D 1L
Away record1W 3D 8L6W 0D 4L
Clean sheets5%25%
Both teams scored65%70%
Over 2.5 goals70%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals91%1.10
Over 2.5 goals76%1.31
Over 3.5 goals57%1.77
Both teams to score70%1.44
Chapecoense or Draw36%2.78
Cruzeiro or Draw82%1.22
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.514%7.15
Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.553%1.88
Chapecoense clean sheet7%13.84
Cruzeiro clean sheet25%3.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-28.7%
1-37.6%
1-17.0%
0-26.3%
2-25.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro is Cruzeiro to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-3 and 1-1. We expect Chapecoense to score 1.4 goals and Cruzeiro 2.6.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Chapecoense last 20 games and 14 of Cruzeiro last 20.

How are Chapecoense playing?

Chapecoense have 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Cruzeiro playing?

Cruzeiro have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Chapecoense and Cruzeiro last met?

It ended Cruzeiro 2, Chapecoense 1. In the last 1 meeting Chapecoense won 0 and Cruzeiro won 1.

What is the best bet for Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro?

Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chapecoense against Cruzeiro. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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