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Predictions › Brazil › Chapecoense vs Mirassol
BrasileiraoTue 3 Nov, 22:30 Brazil time

Chapecoense vs Mirassol prediction

Arena Condá

ChapecoenseHome
1.24 : 1.60
expected goals
MirassolAway
29%Chapecoense
26%Draw
45%Mirassol
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Mirassol is Mirassol to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Mirassol to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Chapecoense 1.2, Mirassol 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mirassol to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.591 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chapecoense 29%, the draw 26% and Mirassol 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chapecoense took 1 point from their last 5 games and Mirassol took 8 from 5. Mirassol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chapecoense won 1 of their last 8 games at home. Mirassol won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Chapecoense score 1.0 goals a game and let in 2.2. Mirassol score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Chapecoense games and 6 of Mirassol games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Chapecoense won 0 and Mirassol won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Mirassol 1, Chapecoense 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Chapecoenserecent form-4%
  • Mirassolrecent form+1%
  • Mirassolrest between games-5%
Chapecoense form D L L D LMirassol form D W L D WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chapecoense vs Mirassol: Mirassol are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chapecoense host Mirassol in the Brasileirao on Tue 3 Nov, 22:30 at Arena Condá. Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Mirassol is Mirassol to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 4 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 44 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Mirassol form

Mirassol have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Chapecoense won 0, Mirassol won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Mirassol 1, Chapecoense 1.

Our call

We expect Chapecoense to score about 1.2 goals and Mirassol about 1.6. That points to Mirassol to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Mirassol to win and Over 2.5 at 3.59.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChapecoenseMirassol
Games played2020
Wins26
Draws48
Losses146
Goals scored2021
Goals conceded4424
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game2.21.2
Home record1W 1D 6L5W 4D 1L
Away record1W 3D 8L1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets5%20%
Both teams scored70%60%
Over 2.5 goals70%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.85
Over 3.5 goals32%3.16
Both teams to score57%1.74
Chapecoense or Draw55%1.82
Mirassol or Draw71%1.41
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.518%5.59
Mirassol to win and Over 2.529%3.46
Chapecoense clean sheet20%4.95
Mirassol clean sheet29%3.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
1-29.3%
0-18.7%
0-27.5%
2-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Chapecoense vs Mirassol?

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Mirassol is Mirassol to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Chapecoense vs Mirassol?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Chapecoense to score 1.2 goals and Mirassol 1.6.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Mirassol?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Chapecoense last 20 games and 12 of Mirassol last 20.

How are Chapecoense playing?

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 4 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 44 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Mirassol playing?

Mirassol have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Chapecoense and Mirassol last met?

It ended Mirassol 1, Chapecoense 1. In the last 1 meeting Chapecoense won 0 and Mirassol won 0.

What is the best bet for Chapecoense vs Mirassol?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chapecoense against Mirassol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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