Predictions › Brazil › Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

BrasileiraoSat 14 Nov, 23:30 Brazil time

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama prediction

Arena Condá

ChapecoenseHome

1.32 : 1.78

expected goals

Vasco da GamaAway

28%Chapecoense

24%Draw

48%Vasco

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction: Vasco da Gama to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.3, Vasco da Gama 1.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score: 62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.222 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.041 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Chapecoense 28%, the draw 24% and Vasco da Gama 48%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Chapecoense took 3 points from their last 5 games and Vasco da Gama took 7 from 5. Vasco da Gama come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Chapecoense won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Vasco da Gama won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Chapecoense score 1.0 goals a game and let in 2.1. Vasco da Gama score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Chapecoense games and 12 of Vasco da Gama games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Chapecoense won 0 and Vasco da Gama won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Vasco da Gama 1, Chapecoense 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Chapecoenserecent form-3%
Vascorecent form-1%
Chapecoenserest between games-5%
Vascorest between games-5%

Chapecoense form D L W L LVasco form W L L W LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama: Vasco da Gama are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chapecoense host Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirao on Sat 14 Nov, 23:30 at Arena Condá. Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Chapecoense won 0, Vasco da Gama won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Vasco da Gama 1, Chapecoense 1.

Our call

We expect Chapecoense to score about 1.3 goals and Vasco da Gama about 1.8. That points to Vasco da Gama to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5 at 3.04.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Chapecoense	Vasco
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	7
Draws	4	4
Losses	13	9
Goals scored	20	25
Goals conceded	42	31
Scored per game	1.0	1.3
Conceded per game	2.1	1.6
Home record	2W 1D 5L	4W 2D 4L
Away record	1W 3D 8L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	5%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.67
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.67
Both teams to score	62%	1.63
Chapecoense or Draw	52%	1.91
Vasco da Gama or Draw	72%	1.39
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.37
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5	33%	3.02
Chapecoense clean sheet	17%	5.92
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	27%	3.74

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%

1-29.4%

0-17.4%

0-27.1%

2-17.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Chapecoense to score 1.3 goals and Vasco da Gama 1.8.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Chapecoense last 20 games and 10 of Vasco da Gama last 20.

How are Chapecoense playing?

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

What happened when Chapecoense and Vasco da Gama last met?

It ended Vasco da Gama 1, Chapecoense 1. In the last 1 meeting Chapecoense won 0 and Vasco da Gama won 0.

What is the best bet for Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chapecoense against Vasco. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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