Predictions › United Kingdom › Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City

ChampionshipSat 10 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City prediction

The Valley

Charlton AthleticHome

1.11 : 1.29

expected goals

Bristol CityAway

31%Charlton

29%Draw

40%Bristol City

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City is Bristol City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Bristol City to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Charlton Athletic 1.1, Bristol City 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Charlton Athletic 31%, the draw 29% and Bristol City 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Bristol City the favourite at 5/4.
2
Recent form
Charlton Athletic took 3 points from their last 5 games and Bristol City took 9 from 5. Bristol City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Charlton Athletic won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Bristol City won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Charlton Athletic score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.5. Bristol City score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Charlton Athletic games and 9 of Bristol City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Charlton Athletic won 0 and Bristol City won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Charlton Athletic 1, Bristol City 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Charltonrecent form-3%
Bristol Cityrecent form+1%

Charlton form L D D L DBristol City form W L L W WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City: Bristol City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Charlton Athletic host Bristol City in the Championship on Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 at The Valley. Our prediction for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City is Bristol City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

Charlton Athletic form

Charlton Athletic have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Bristol City form

Bristol City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Charlton Athletic won 0, Bristol City won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Charlton Athletic 1, Bristol City 2.

Our call

We expect Charlton Athletic to score about 1.1 goals and Bristol City about 1.3. That points to Bristol City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Charlton	Bristol City
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	7
Draws	6	4
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	21	22
Goals conceded	30	28
Scored per game	1.1	1.1
Conceded per game	1.5	1.4
Home record	3W 2D 4L	4W 0D 6L
Away record	3W 4D 4L	3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Charlton Athletic to win	30%	12/5	85/40	-7.1%
A Draw	28%	5/2	9/4	-8.3%
Bristol City to win	37%	7/4	5/4	-16.4%
Over 2.5 goals	42%	11/8	Evens	-15.7%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	10/11	8/11	-11.6%
Charlton Athletic +0.5	55%	4/5	4/7	-13.4%
Bristol City -0.5	39%	8/5	11/10	-17.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	70%	4/9
Over 2.5 goals	43%	11/8
Over 3.5 goals	22%	7/2
Both teams to score	49%	21/20
Charlton Athletic or Draw	60%	4/6
Bristol City or Draw	69%	4/9
Charlton Athletic to win and Over 2.5	16%	5/1
Bristol City to win and Over 2.5	21%	7/2
Charlton Athletic clean sheet	28%	13/5
Bristol City clean sheet	33%	2/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%

0-111.0%

0-09.9%

1-09.3%

1-28.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?

Our prediction for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City is Bristol City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Charlton Athletic to score 1.1 goals and Bristol City 1.3.

Will both teams score in Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Charlton Athletic last 20 games and 10 of Bristol City last 20.

How are Charlton Athletic playing?

How are Bristol City playing?

What happened when Charlton Athletic and Bristol City last met?

It ended Charlton Athletic 1, Bristol City 2. In the last 1 meeting Charlton Athletic won 0 and Bristol City won 1.

What is the best bet for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?

Under 3.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Charlton against Bristol City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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