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Predictions › United States › Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
NFLSun 18 Oct, 13:00 United States time

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons prediction

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Chicago BearsAway
25.6 : 23.0
projected points
Atlanta FalconsHome
58%Bears
42%Falcons
Eagle safe pickOver 40.5 points
-290

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons is Chicago Bears to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Bears 25.6 and Atlanta Falcons 23.0. Our best bet is Over 40.5 points at -290.

Prediction
Chicago Bears to win
Chance
58%
Projected score
Chicago Bears 26, Atlanta Falcons 23
Projected total
48.6 points
Best bet
Over 40.5 points at -290

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 40.5 points
74% chanceFair price -2901 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlanta Falcons 42% and Chicago Bears 58%. The bookmakers agree and make Chicago Bears the favourite at -125.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlanta Falcons won 3 of their last 5 and Chicago Bears won 4 of their last 5. Chicago Bears come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlanta Falcons won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Chicago Bears won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Atlanta Falcons score 21.6 points a game and let in 22.6. Chicago Bears score 25.8 and let in 21.2. Their recent games average 44.1 and 47.0 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 40.5 points has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Falconsrest between games-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons: Chicago Bears shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlanta Falcons host Chicago Bears in the NFL on Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our prediction for Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons is Chicago Bears to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Bears 25.6 and Atlanta Falcons 23.0. Our best bet is Over 40.5 points at -290.

Atlanta Falcons form

Atlanta Falcons have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 431 points scored and 452 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Chicago Bears form

Chicago Bears have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 516 points scored and 424 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Chicago Bears to score about 25.6 points and Atlanta Falcons about 23.0. That points to Chicago Bears to win. Our safest bet is Over 40.5 points at -290.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FalconsBears
Games played2020
Wins1013
Losses107
Points scored431516
Points conceded452424
Scored per game21.625.8
Conceded per game22.621.2
Home record3W 5L8W 3L
Away record7W 5L5W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Falcons to win42%+136+105-13.2%
Bears to win51%-104-125-8.3%
Falcons +1.544%+129-110-16.7%
Bears -1.550%+101-110-5.2%
Over 47.5 points50%+101-110-5.1%
Under 47.5 points44%+130-110-16.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Falcons spreadCoversFair
Falcons -4.530%+234
Falcons -0.541%+144
Falcons +2.550%+101
Falcons +5.559%-141
Falcons +9.570%-228
Total pointsOverUnder
41.571%29%
45.559%41%
48.550%50%
51.541%59%
55.530%70%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Falcons +3.5 wins if Falcons win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Kyle Monangai and Chuba Hubbard Lead Strong Week for African RBs

Kyle Monangai and Chuba Hubbard delivered big games as players with African heritage made their mark across the NFL.

7 Oct 2026
NFL

Saints Face Harsh Reality After Blowout Loss to Falcons

The New Orleans Saints dropped to 1-3 after a blowout home loss to the Atlanta Falcons, leaving fans frustrated and booing.

6 Oct 2026
NFL

Atlanta Falcons Offense Explodes After Michael Penix Jr Returns

After scoring just 16 points in their first two games, the Atlanta Falcons have scored 80 points over their last two wins.

6 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons?

Our prediction for Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons is Chicago Bears to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Bears 25.6 and Atlanta Falcons 23.0. Our best bet is Over 40.5 points at -290.

What is the projected score for Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons?

We project Chicago Bears 25.6 and Atlanta Falcons 23.0, about 48.6 points in total.

How are Atlanta Falcons playing?

Atlanta Falcons have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 431 points scored and 452 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Chicago Bears playing?

Chicago Bears have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 516 points scored and 424 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons?

Over 40.5 points at -290, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Falcons against Bears. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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