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Predictions › United States › Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
NFLSun 11 Oct, 13:00 United States time

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers prediction

Lambeau Field

Chicago BearsAway
22.8 : 24.3
projected points
Green Bay PackersHome
48%Bears
52%Packers
Eagle safe pickOver 38.5 points
-300

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers is Green Bay Packers to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Bears 22.8 and Green Bay Packers 24.3. Our best bet is Over 38.5 points at -300.

Prediction
Green Bay Packers to win
Chance
52%
Projected score
Chicago Bears 23, Green Bay Packers 24
Projected total
47.0 points
Best bet
Over 38.5 points at -300

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 38.5 points
75% chanceFair price -3002 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Green Bay Packers 52% and Chicago Bears 48%. The bookmakers agree and make Green Bay Packers the favourite at -135.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Green Bay Packers won 3 of their last 5 and Chicago Bears won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Green Bay Packers won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Chicago Bears won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Green Bay Packers score 22.7 points a game and let in 23.9. Chicago Bears score 25.9 and let in 21.3. Their recent games average 46.5 and 47.3 points in total, and the market line is 45.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Green Bay Packers won 1 and Chicago Bears won 2. The last one ended Chicago Bears 31, Green Bay Packers 27.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 38.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bearsrest between games-2%
  • Bearsteam news-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers: Green Bay Packers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Green Bay Packers host Chicago Bears in the NFL on Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 at Lambeau Field. Our prediction for Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers is Green Bay Packers to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Bears 22.8 and Green Bay Packers 24.3. Our best bet is Over 38.5 points at -300.

Green Bay Packers form

Green Bay Packers have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 454 points scored and 477 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Chicago Bears form

Chicago Bears have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 519 points scored and 426 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Green Bay Packers won 1, Chicago Bears won 2. Last time out it finished Chicago Bears 31, Green Bay Packers 27.

Our call

We expect Chicago Bears to score about 22.8 points and Green Bay Packers about 24.3. That points to Green Bay Packers to win. Our safest bet is Over 38.5 points at -300.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PackersBears
Games played2020
Wins1013
Losses107
Points scored454519
Points conceded477426
Scored per game22.725.9
Conceded per game23.921.3
Home record4W 4L8W 3L
Away record6W 6L5W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Packers to win52%-107-135-9.9%
Bears to win42%+136+114-9.4%
Packers -2.544%+127-110-15.7%
Bears +2.550%+100-110-4.6%
Over 45.5 points52%-106-110-1.7%
Under 45.5 points43%+135-110-18.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Packers spreadCoversFair
Packers -8.530%+232
Packers -4.541%+143
Packers -1.550%+100
Packers +1.559%-142
Packers +5.570%-230
Total pointsOverUnder
40.569%31%
44.558%42%
47.549%51%
50.539%61%
54.528%72%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Packers +3.5 wins if Packers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Who Starts for Chicago? Keenum Sparks Bears Quarterback Debate

Case Keenum starred in Chicago's win over the Eagles, leaving coach Ben Johnson with a tough choice as Tyson Bagent returns to health.

30 Sept 2026
NFL

Caleb Williams Facing Multiple Weeks Out With Hamstring Injury

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is expected to miss three to four weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring injury, leaving Chicago with a decision to make.

27 Sept 2026
NFL

Chicago Bears Face Quarterback Dilemma Ahead of Eagles Game

Caleb Williams is out for Monday's game against the Eagles, leaving the Bears to choose between Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum.

26 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers?

Our prediction for Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers is Green Bay Packers to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Bears 22.8 and Green Bay Packers 24.3. Our best bet is Over 38.5 points at -300.

What is the projected score for Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers?

We project Chicago Bears 22.8 and Green Bay Packers 24.3, about 47.0 points in total.

How are Green Bay Packers playing?

Green Bay Packers have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 454 points scored and 477 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Chicago Bears playing?

Chicago Bears have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 519 points scored and 426 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears last met?

It ended Chicago Bears 31, Green Bay Packers 27. In the last 3 meetings Green Bay Packers won 1 and Chicago Bears won 2.

What is the best bet for Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers?

Over 38.5 points at -300, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Packers against Bears. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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