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Predictions › United States › Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning
NHLThu 5 Nov, 19:00 United States time

Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Benchmark International Arena

Chicago BlackhawksAway
2.1 : 3.5
projected goals
Tampa Bay LightningHome
24%Blackhawks
76%Lightning
Eagle safe pickOver 4 goals
-403

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 76% chance. We project Chicago Blackhawks 2.1 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -403.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
76%
Projected score
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Projected total
5.7 goals
Best bet
Over 4 goals at -403

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 4 goals
80% chanceFair price -4032 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Lightning 76% and Chicago Blackhawks 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 3 of their last 5 and Chicago Blackhawks won 2 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Lightning come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Chicago Blackhawks won 0 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Lightning score 2.9 goals a game and let in 2.8. Chicago Blackhawks score 2.3 and let in 3.7. Their recent games average 5.6 and 6.0 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Tampa Bay Lightning won 1 and Chicago Blackhawks won 1. The last one ended Chicago Blackhawks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 4 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lightningrest between games-2%
  • Blackhawksrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Lightning host Chicago Blackhawks in the NHL on Thu 5 Nov, 19:00 at Benchmark International Arena. Our prediction for Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 76% chance. We project Chicago Blackhawks 2.1 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -403.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 57 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Chicago Blackhawks form

Chicago Blackhawks have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 74 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins and 7 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Tampa Bay Lightning won 1, Chicago Blackhawks won 1. Last time out it finished Chicago Blackhawks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.

Our call

We expect Chicago Blackhawks to score about 2.1 goals and Tampa Bay Lightning about 3.5. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Over 4 goals at -403.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LightningBlackhawks
Games played2020
Wins116
Losses914
Goals scored5746
Goals conceded5574
Scored per game2.92.3
Conceded per game2.83.7
Home record6W 3L6W 7L
Away record5W 6L0W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Lightning spreadCoversFair
Lightning -2.533%+204
Lightning -1.549%+104
Lightning -0.565%-187
Total goalsOverUnder
4.569%31%
5.553%47%
6.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Lightning +3.5 wins if Lightning win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Nikita Kucherov Takes Top Spot on Lightning All Time Scoring List

Nikita Kucherov surpassed Steven Stamkos to become Tampa Bay's all time scoring leader on Saturday night against Utah.

25 Oct 2026
NHL

Sabres Forward Jiri Kulich Hits Game Winner After Year Out With Blood Clot

Buffalo Sabres forward Jiri Kulich scored the game winner against Chicago after missing nearly a year with a career threatening blood clot.

4 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Our prediction for Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 76% chance. We project Chicago Blackhawks 2.1 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -403.

What is the projected score for Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

We project Chicago Blackhawks 2.1 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5, about 5.7 goals in total.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 57 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Chicago Blackhawks playing?

Chicago Blackhawks have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 74 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins and 7 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks last met?

It ended Chicago Blackhawks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2. In the last 2 meetings Tampa Bay Lightning won 1 and Chicago Blackhawks won 1.

What is the best bet for Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Over 4 goals at -403, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lightning against Blackhawks. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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