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Predictions › United States › Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
MLBThu 1 Oct, 22:00 United States time

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres prediction

Petco Park

Chicago CubsAway
4.3 : 4.3
projected runs
San Diego PadresHome
54%Cubs
46%Padres
Eagle safe pickPadres +2.5
-282

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres is Chicago Cubs to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Cubs 4.3 and San Diego Padres 4.3. Our best bet is Padres +2.5 at -282.

Prediction
Chicago Cubs to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
Chicago Cubs 4, San Diego Padres 4
Projected total
8.6 runs
Best bet
Padres +2.5 at -282

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Padres +2.5
74% chanceFair price -2821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives San Diego Padres 46% and Chicago Cubs 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    San Diego Padres won 4 of their last 5 and Chicago Cubs won 2 of their last 5. San Diego Padres come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    San Diego Padres won 9 of their last 10 games at home. Chicago Cubs won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    San Diego Padres score 6.2 runs a game and let in 4.5. Chicago Cubs score 4.5 and let in 4.1. Their recent games average 10.7 and 8.7 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, San Diego Padres won 0 and Chicago Cubs won 5. The last one ended Chicago Cubs 23, San Diego Padres 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Padres +2.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Padresrest between games-5%
  • Cubsrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres: Chicago Cubs shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Diego Padres host Chicago Cubs in the MLB on Thu 1 Oct, 22:00 at Petco Park. Our prediction for Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres is Chicago Cubs to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Cubs 4.3 and San Diego Padres 4.3. Our best bet is Padres +2.5 at -282.

San Diego Padres form

San Diego Padres have 17 wins and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 124 runs scored and 90 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Chicago Cubs form

Chicago Cubs have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 91 runs scored and 82 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. San Diego Padres won 0, Chicago Cubs won 5. Last time out it finished Chicago Cubs 23, San Diego Padres 3.

Our call

We expect Chicago Cubs to score about 4.3 runs and San Diego Padres about 4.3. That points to Chicago Cubs to win. Our safest bet is Padres +2.5 at -282.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PadresCubs
Games played2020
Wins179
Losses311
Runs scored12491
Runs conceded9082
Scored per game6.24.5
Conceded per game4.54.1
Home record9W 1L5W 4L
Away record8W 2L4W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Padres spreadCoversFair
Padres -1.535%+183
Padres -0.545%+125
Padres +0.554%-117
Padres +1.563%-172
Padres +2.572%-254
Total runsOverUnder
6.569%31%
7.560%40%
8.551%49%
9.542%58%
10.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Padres +3.5 wins if Padres win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Padres Lock Up Home Field for Wild Card Series Against Cubs

The San Diego Padres beat Arizona 10-7 to secure the No. 4 seed and home advantage against the Chicago Cubs.

27 Sept 2026
MLB

Cubs Clinch Postseason Berth as Crow-Armstrong Joins Elite 40-40 Club

The Chicago Cubs secured a wild card spot with a 2-1 win over Miami, while Pete Crow-Armstrong joined the exclusive 40-40 club.

24 Sept 2026
MLB

Padres Catcher Ethan Salas Makes History in Win Over Rockies

Ethan Salas became the youngest catcher in MLB history to hit two home runs in a single game as the Padres beat the Rockies 9-3.

17 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres?

Our prediction for Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres is Chicago Cubs to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago Cubs 4.3 and San Diego Padres 4.3. Our best bet is Padres +2.5 at -282.

What is the projected score for Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres?

We project Chicago Cubs 4.3 and San Diego Padres 4.3, about 8.6 runs in total.

How are San Diego Padres playing?

San Diego Padres have 17 wins and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 124 runs scored and 90 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Chicago Cubs playing?

Chicago Cubs have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 91 runs scored and 82 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs last met?

It ended Chicago Cubs 23, San Diego Padres 3. In the last 5 meetings San Diego Padres won 0 and Chicago Cubs won 5.

What is the best bet for Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres?

Padres +2.5 at -282, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Padres against Cubs. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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