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Predictions › United States › Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC
MLSSat 10 Oct, 14:30 United States time

Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC prediction

Soldier Field

Chicago Fire FCHome
1.33 : 1.25
expected goals
New York City FCAway
38%Chicago
28%Draw
34%NYCFC
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
-292

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC is Chicago Fire FC to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -292.

Prediction
Chicago Fire FC to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Chicago Fire FC 1.3, New York City FC 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at -292
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price -2921 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price +6491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chicago Fire FC 38%, the draw 28% and New York City FC 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chicago Fire FC took 5 points from their last 5 games and New York City FC took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chicago Fire FC won 5 of their last 9 games at home. New York City FC won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Chicago Fire FC score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. New York City FC score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Chicago Fire FC games and 10 of New York City FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Chicago Fire FC won 0 and New York City FC won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended New York City FC 3, Chicago Fire FC 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Chicagorecent form-1%
  • NYCFCrecent form-1%
Chicago form W L L D DNYCFC form D L W L DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC: Chicago Fire FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chicago Fire FC host New York City FC in the MLS on Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 at Soldier Field. Our prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC is Chicago Fire FC to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -292.

Chicago Fire FC form

Chicago Fire FC have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, D, newest first.

New York City FC form

New York City FC have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Chicago Fire FC won 0, New York City FC won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished New York City FC 3, Chicago Fire FC 1.

Our call

We expect Chicago Fire FC to score about 1.3 goals and New York City FC about 1.3. That points to Chicago Fire FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at -292. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at +649.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChicagoNYCFC
Games played2020
Wins95
Draws57
Losses68
Goals scored3827
Goals conceded3327
Scored per game1.91.4
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record5W 1D 3L2W 3D 5L
Away record4W 4D 3L3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals75%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%-280
Over 2.5 goals48%+110
Over 3.5 goals26%+284
Both teams to score53%-114
Chicago Fire FC or Draw66%-192
New York City FC or Draw62%-165
Chicago Fire FC to win and Over 2.522%+358
New York City FC to win and Over 2.520%+411
Chicago Fire FC clean sheet29%+250
New York City FC clean sheet26%+278

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-09.3%
0-18.7%
2-18.4%
0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?

Our prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC is Chicago Fire FC to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -292.

What is the score prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Chicago Fire FC to score 1.3 goals and New York City FC 1.3.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Chicago Fire FC last 20 games and 13 of New York City FC last 20.

How are Chicago Fire FC playing?

Chicago Fire FC have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, D, newest first.

How are New York City FC playing?

New York City FC have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Chicago Fire FC and New York City FC last met?

It ended New York City FC 3, Chicago Fire FC 1. In the last 2 meetings Chicago Fire FC won 0 and New York City FC won 2.

What is the best bet for Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?

Under 3.5 goals at -292, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chicago against NYCFC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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