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Predictions › United States › Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union
MLSWed 14 Oct, 20:30 United States time

Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction

Soldier Field

Chicago Fire FCHome
1.84 : 2.20
expected goals
Philadelphia UnionAway
33%Chicago
21%Draw
46%Philadelphia
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
-318

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union is Philadelphia Union to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -318.

Prediction
Philadelphia Union to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-2
Expected goals
Chicago Fire FC 1.8, Philadelphia Union 2.2
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at -318
Both teams to score
75%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
76% chanceFair price -3182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Philadelphia Union to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price +1741 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Chicago Fire FC 33%, the draw 21% and Philadelphia Union 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Chicago Fire FC took 5 points from their last 5 games and Philadelphia Union took 15 from 5. Philadelphia Union come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Chicago Fire FC won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Philadelphia Union won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Chicago Fire FC score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Philadelphia Union score 2.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Chicago Fire FC games and 13 of Philadelphia Union games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Chicago Fire FC won 1 and Philadelphia Union won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Philadelphia Union 1, Chicago Fire FC 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Chicagorecent form-1%
  • Philadelphiarecent form+7%
Chicago form W L L D DPhiladelphia form W W W W WHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chicago Fire FC host Philadelphia Union in the MLS on Wed 14 Oct, 20:30 at Soldier Field. Our prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union is Philadelphia Union to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -318.

Chicago Fire FC form

Chicago Fire FC have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Philadelphia Union form

Philadelphia Union have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Chicago Fire FC won 1, Philadelphia Union won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Philadelphia Union 1, Chicago Fire FC 2.

Our call

We expect Chicago Fire FC to score about 1.8 goals and Philadelphia Union about 2.2. That points to Philadelphia Union to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at -318. Our bold bet is Philadelphia Union to win and Over 2.5 at +174.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ChicagoPhiladelphia
Games played2020
Wins910
Draws56
Losses64
Goals scored3848
Goals conceded3332
Scored per game1.92.4
Conceded per game1.61.6
Home record5W 1D 3L6W 4D 0L
Away record4W 4D 3L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals75%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals92%-1086
Over 2.5 goals77%-331
Over 3.5 goals57%-135
Both teams to score75%-304
Chicago Fire FC or Draw54%-116
Philadelphia Union or Draw67%-207
Chicago Fire FC to win and Over 2.527%+274
Philadelphia Union to win and Over 2.539%+159
Chicago Fire FC clean sheet11%+802
Philadelphia Union clean sheet16%+530

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-27.8%
1-17.5%
2-27.2%
2-16.6%
1-35.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLS

Sullivan Sparks Philadelphia Union to Dominant 5-0 Win

Cavan Sullivan scored twice and set up another goal as the Philadelphia Union rolled to a 5-0 victory over San Diego.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Our prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union is Philadelphia Union to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -318.

What is the score prediction for Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-2. We expect Chicago Fire FC to score 1.8 goals and Philadelphia Union 2.2.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Both teams to score has a 75% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Chicago Fire FC last 20 games and 13 of Philadelphia Union last 20.

How are Chicago Fire FC playing?

Chicago Fire FC have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, D, newest first.

How are Philadelphia Union playing?

Philadelphia Union have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Chicago Fire FC and Philadelphia Union last met?

It ended Philadelphia Union 1, Chicago Fire FC 2. In the last 3 meetings Chicago Fire FC won 1 and Philadelphia Union won 1.

What is the best bet for Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Over 2.5 goals at -318, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chicago against Philadelphia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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