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Predictions › United States › Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox
MLBTue 22 Sept, 18:45 United States time

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox prediction

Fenway Park

Cleveland GuardiansAway
4.3 : 4.2
projected runs
Boston Red SoxHome
52%Guardians
48%Red Sox
Eagle safe pickRed Sox +2.5
-258

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox is Cleveland Guardians to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Cleveland Guardians 4.3 and Boston Red Sox 4.2. Our best bet is Red Sox +2.5 at -258.

Prediction
Cleveland Guardians to win
Chance
52%
Projected score
Cleveland Guardians 4, Boston Red Sox 4
Projected total
8.4 runs
Best bet
Red Sox +2.5 at -258

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Red Sox +2.5
72% chanceFair price -2581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Boston Red Sox 48% and Cleveland Guardians 52%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Boston Red Sox won 2 of their last 5 and Cleveland Guardians won 2 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Boston Red Sox won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Cleveland Guardians won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Boston Red Sox score 3.8 runs a game and let in 4.4. Cleveland Guardians score 4.5 and let in 4.5. Their recent games average 8.2 and 8.9 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Boston Red Sox won 2 and Cleveland Guardians won 1. The last one ended Cleveland Guardians 4, Boston Red Sox 9.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Red Sox +2.5 has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Red Soxrest between games-5%
  • Guardiansrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox: Cleveland Guardians shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boston Red Sox host Cleveland Guardians in the MLB on Tue 22 Sept, 18:45 at Fenway Park. Our prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox is Cleveland Guardians to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Cleveland Guardians 4.3 and Boston Red Sox 4.2. Our best bet is Red Sox +2.5 at -258.

Boston Red Sox form

Boston Red Sox have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 75 runs scored and 88 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Cleveland Guardians form

Cleveland Guardians have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 90 runs scored and 89 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Boston Red Sox won 2, Cleveland Guardians won 1. Last time out it finished Cleveland Guardians 4, Boston Red Sox 9.

Our call

We expect Cleveland Guardians to score about 4.3 runs and Boston Red Sox about 4.2. That points to Cleveland Guardians to win. Our safest bet is Red Sox +2.5 at -258.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Red SoxGuardians
Games played2020
Wins1112
Losses98
Runs scored7590
Runs conceded8889
Scored per game3.84.5
Conceded per game4.44.5
Home record4W 5L5W 5L
Away record7W 4L7W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Red Sox spreadCoversFair
Red Sox -1.535%+185
Red Sox -0.544%+126
Red Sox +0.554%-116
Red Sox +1.563%-170
Red Sox +2.571%-251
Total runsOverUnder
6.567%33%
7.558%42%
8.549%51%
9.540%60%
10.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Red Sox +3.5 wins if Red Sox win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox?

Our prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox is Cleveland Guardians to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Cleveland Guardians 4.3 and Boston Red Sox 4.2. Our best bet is Red Sox +2.5 at -258.

What is the projected score for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox?

We project Cleveland Guardians 4.3 and Boston Red Sox 4.2, about 8.4 runs in total.

How are Boston Red Sox playing?

Boston Red Sox have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 75 runs scored and 88 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Cleveland Guardians playing?

Cleveland Guardians have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 90 runs scored and 89 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians last met?

It ended Cleveland Guardians 4, Boston Red Sox 9. In the last 3 meetings Boston Red Sox won 2 and Cleveland Guardians won 1.

What is the best bet for Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox?

Red Sox +2.5 at -258, with a 72% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Red Sox against Guardians. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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