Predictions › Chile › Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción

Chilean Primera DivisionSat 10 Oct, 18:00 Chile time

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción prediction

Estadio El Cobre

CobresalHome

1.73 : 1.15

expected goals

Universidad de ConcepciónAway

50%Cobresal

25%Draw

25%U Concepción

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción is Cobresal to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Cobresal to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Cobresal 1.7, Universidad de Concepción 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cobresal to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 3.191 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Cobresal 50%, the draw 25% and Universidad de Concepción 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Cobresal the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Cobresal took 7 points from their last 5 games and Universidad de Concepción took 3 from 5. Cobresal come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Cobresal won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Universidad de Concepción won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Cobresal score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.1. Universidad de Concepción score 0.8 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Cobresal games and 10 of Universidad de Concepción games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Cobresal won 0 and Universidad de Concepción won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Universidad de Concepción 1, Cobresal 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

U Concepciónrecent form-4%

Cobresal form W L W D LU Concepción form L L W L LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción: Cobresal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cobresal host Universidad de Concepción in the Chilean Primera Division on Sat 10 Oct, 18:00 at Estadio El Cobre. Our prediction for Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción is Cobresal to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Cobresal form

Cobresal have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Universidad de Concepción form

Universidad de Concepción have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Cobresal won 0, Universidad de Concepción won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Universidad de Concepción 1, Cobresal 0.

Our call

We expect Cobresal to score about 1.7 goals and Universidad de Concepción about 1.1. That points to Cobresal to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Cobresal to win and Over 2.5 at 3.19.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Cobresal	U Concepción
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	5
Draws	3	4
Losses	13	11
Goals scored	27	16
Goals conceded	42	34
Scored per game	1.4	0.8
Conceded per game	2.1	1.7
Home record	4W 0D 5L	4W 1D 4L
Away record	0W 3D 8L	1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	15%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Cobresal to win	47%	2.12	2.15	+1.2%
A Draw	24%	4.09	3.45	-15.6%
Universidad de Concepción to win	24%	4.15	3.05	-26.6%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.96	1.69	-13.6%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	2.35	2.00	-14.8%
Cobresal -0.5	43%	2.33	2.05	-11.8%
Universidad de Concepción +0.5	51%	1.97	1.63	-17.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.82
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.08
Both teams to score	57%	1.76
Cobresal or Draw	75%	1.33
Universidad de Concepción or Draw	50%	2.01
Cobresal to win and Over 2.5	33%	3.05
Universidad de Concepción to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.60
Cobresal clean sheet	32%	3.16
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet	18%	5.62

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

2-19.7%

1-09.1%

2-08.4%

1-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción?

Our prediction for Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción is Cobresal to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Cobresal to score 1.7 goals and Universidad de Concepción 1.1.

Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Cobresal last 20 games and 10 of Universidad de Concepción last 20.

How are Cobresal playing?

How are Universidad de Concepción playing?

What happened when Cobresal and Universidad de Concepción last met?

It ended Universidad de Concepción 1, Cobresal 0. In the last 1 meeting Cobresal won 0 and Universidad de Concepción won 1.

What is the best bet for Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cobresal against U Concepción. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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