Predictions › Peru › Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco

Peruvian Liga 1Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Peru time

Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco prediction

Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Comerciantes UnidosHome

1.36 : 1.38

expected goals

Cienciano del CuscoAway

36%Comer Unid

27%Draw

37%Cienciano

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco is Cienciano del Cusco to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Cienciano del Cusco to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Comerciantes Unidos 1.4, Cienciano del Cusco 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.781 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Comerciantes Unidos 36%, the draw 27% and Cienciano del Cusco 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Comerciantes Unidos took 2 points from their last 5 games and Cienciano del Cusco took 7 from 5. Cienciano del Cusco come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Comerciantes Unidos won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Cienciano del Cusco won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Comerciantes Unidos score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.4. Cienciano del Cusco score 1.4 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Comerciantes Unidos games and 11 of Cienciano del Cusco games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Comerciantes Unidos won 0 and Cienciano del Cusco won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cienciano del Cusco 1, Comerciantes Unidos 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Comer Unidrecent form-4%
Ciencianorecent form-1%

Comer Unid form D L L D LCienciano form D D L L WHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco: Cienciano del Cusco shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Comerciantes Unidos host Cienciano del Cusco in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 at Juan Maldonado Gamarra. Our prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco is Cienciano del Cusco to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Comerciantes Unidos form

Comerciantes Unidos have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Cienciano del Cusco form

Cienciano del Cusco have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Comerciantes Unidos won 0, Cienciano del Cusco won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cienciano del Cusco 1, Comerciantes Unidos 0.

Our call

We expect Comerciantes Unidos to score about 1.4 goals and Cienciano del Cusco about 1.4. That points to Cienciano del Cusco to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.78.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Comer Unid	Cienciano
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	8
Draws	8	4
Losses	8	8
Goals scored	24	29
Goals conceded	27	30
Scored per game	1.2	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	1.5
Home record	3W 4D 2L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	1W 4D 6L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	15%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.94
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.40
Both teams to score	56%	1.78
Comerciantes Unidos or Draw	63%	1.58
Cienciano del Cusco or Draw	64%	1.56
Comerciantes Unidos to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.54
Cienciano del Cusco to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.44
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	25%	3.96
Cienciano del Cusco clean sheet	26%	3.90

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

1-28.3%

2-18.2%

0-18.2%

1-08.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco?

What is the score prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Comerciantes Unidos to score 1.4 goals and Cienciano del Cusco 1.4.

Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Comerciantes Unidos last 20 games and 12 of Cienciano del Cusco last 20.

How are Comerciantes Unidos playing?

How are Cienciano del Cusco playing?

What happened when Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano del Cusco last met?

It ended Cienciano del Cusco 1, Comerciantes Unidos 0. In the last 1 meeting Comerciantes Unidos won 0 and Cienciano del Cusco won 1.

What is the best bet for Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano del Cusco?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Comer Unid against Cienciano. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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