Predictions › Peru › Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II

Peruvian Liga 1Sat 10 Oct, 20:30 Peru time

Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II prediction

Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Comerciantes UnidosHome

1.57 : 1.24

expected goals

Juan Pablo IIAway

44%Comer Unid

26%Draw

29%Juan Pablo II

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II is Comerciantes Unidos to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Comerciantes Unidos to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Comerciantes Unidos 1.6, Juan Pablo II 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Comerciantes Unidos to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Comerciantes Unidos 44%, the draw 26% and Juan Pablo II 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Comerciantes Unidos took 4 points from their last 5 games and Juan Pablo II took 13 from 5. Juan Pablo II come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Comerciantes Unidos won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Juan Pablo II won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Comerciantes Unidos score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Juan Pablo II score 1.4 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Comerciantes Unidos games and 11 of Juan Pablo II games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 and Juan Pablo II won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Juan Pablo II 2, Comerciantes Unidos 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Comer Unidrecent form-3%
Juan Pablo IIrecent form+6%

Comer Unid form L L D L WJuan Pablo II form W W D W WHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II: Comerciantes Unidos shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Comerciantes Unidos host Juan Pablo II in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 10 Oct, 20:30 at Juan Maldonado Gamarra. Our prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II is Comerciantes Unidos to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Comerciantes Unidos form

Comerciantes Unidos have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Juan Pablo II form

Juan Pablo II have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Comerciantes Unidos won 1, Juan Pablo II won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Juan Pablo II 2, Comerciantes Unidos 2.

Our call

We expect Comerciantes Unidos to score about 1.6 goals and Juan Pablo II about 1.2. That points to Comerciantes Unidos to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Comerciantes Unidos to win and Over 2.5 at 3.67.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Comer Unid	Juan Pablo II
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	6
Draws	8	6
Losses	8	8
Goals scored	23	29
Goals conceded	26	34
Scored per game	1.1	1.4
Conceded per game	1.3	1.7
Home record	3W 4D 2L	4W 4D 2L
Away record	1W 4D 6L	2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.88
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.24
Both teams to score	57%	1.76
Comerciantes Unidos or Draw	71%	1.42
Juan Pablo II or Draw	56%	1.80
Comerciantes Unidos to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.56
Juan Pablo II to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.57
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	29%	3.44
Juan Pablo II clean sheet	21%	4.80

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%

2-19.2%

1-08.8%

2-07.5%

1-27.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II?

Our prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II is Comerciantes Unidos to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Comerciantes Unidos to score 1.6 goals and Juan Pablo II 1.2.

Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Comerciantes Unidos last 20 games and 12 of Juan Pablo II last 20.

How are Comerciantes Unidos playing?

How are Juan Pablo II playing?

What happened when Comerciantes Unidos and Juan Pablo II last met?

It ended Juan Pablo II 2, Comerciantes Unidos 2. In the last 2 meetings Comerciantes Unidos won 1 and Juan Pablo II won 0.

What is the best bet for Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Comer Unid against Juan Pablo II. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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