Predictions › Peru › Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

Peruvian Liga 1Sun 15 Nov, 18:00 Peru time

Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys prediction

Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Comerciantes UnidosHome

1.30 : 0.89

expected goals

Sport BoysAway

45%Comer Unid

30%Draw

25%Sport Boys

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys is Comerciantes Unidos to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Comerciantes Unidos to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Comerciantes Unidos 1.3, Sport Boys 0.9
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Comerciantes Unidos 45%, the draw 30% and Sport Boys 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Comerciantes Unidos took 6 points from their last 5 games and Sport Boys took 7 from 5. Sport Boys come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Comerciantes Unidos won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Sport Boys won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Comerciantes Unidos score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Sport Boys score 1.3 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Comerciantes Unidos games and 6 of Sport Boys games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Comerciantes Unidos won 1 and Sport Boys won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sport Boys 1, Comerciantes Unidos 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Comer Unidrest between games-2%
Sport Boysrest between games-5%

Comer Unid form D D W L DSport Boys form D W W L LHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys: Comerciantes Unidos are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Comerciantes Unidos host Sport Boys in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 15 Nov, 18:00 at Juan Maldonado Gamarra. Our prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys is Comerciantes Unidos to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Comerciantes Unidos form

Comerciantes Unidos have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Sport Boys form

Sport Boys have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Comerciantes Unidos won 1, Sport Boys won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sport Boys 1, Comerciantes Unidos 0.

Our call

We expect Comerciantes Unidos to score about 1.3 goals and Sport Boys about 0.9. That points to Comerciantes Unidos to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Comer Unid	Sport Boys
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	9
Draws	8	6
Losses	9	5
Goals scored	27	26
Goals conceded	32	19
Scored per game	1.4	1.3
Conceded per game	1.6	0.9
Home record	2W 5D 2L	7W 2D 1L
Away record	1W 3D 7L	2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	5%	45%
Both teams scored	70%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	65%	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	38%	2.65
Over 3.5 goals	18%	5.55
Both teams to score	44%	2.28
Comerciantes Unidos or Draw	75%	1.33
Sport Boys or Draw	55%	1.83
Comerciantes Unidos to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.51
Sport Boys to win and Over 2.5	11%	8.93
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	41%	2.44
Sport Boys clean sheet	27%	3.69

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%

1-013.7%

0-011.9%

2-09.5%

0-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?

Our prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys is Comerciantes Unidos to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Comerciantes Unidos to score 1.3 goals and Sport Boys 0.9.

Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Comerciantes Unidos last 20 games and 9 of Sport Boys last 20.

How are Comerciantes Unidos playing?

How are Sport Boys playing?

What happened when Comerciantes Unidos and Sport Boys last met?

It ended Sport Boys 1, Comerciantes Unidos 0. In the last 2 meetings Comerciantes Unidos won 1 and Sport Boys won 1.

What is the best bet for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Comer Unid against Sport Boys. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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