Predictions › Italy › Como vs Sassuolo

Serie ASat 24 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Como vs Sassuolo prediction

Giuseppe Sinigaglia

ComoHome

1.94 : 0.86

expected goals

SassuoloAway

62%Como

23%Draw

15%Sassuolo

Eagle safe pickComo or Draw

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Como vs Sassuolo is Como to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Como or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction: Como to win
Chance: 62%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Como 1.9, Sassuolo 0.9
Best bet: Como or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Como or Draw

83% chanceFair price 1.212 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Como to win and Over 2.5

39% chanceFair price 2.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Como 62%, the draw 23% and Sassuolo 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Como the favourite at 1.40.
2
Recent form
Como took 10 points from their last 5 games and Sassuolo took 8 from 5. Como come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Como won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Sassuolo won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Como score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. Sassuolo score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Como games and 14 of Sassuolo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Como won 1 and Sassuolo won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sassuolo 2, Como 1.
6
The safest bet
Como or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Comorecent form+3%
Sassuolorecent form+1%

Como form D L W W WSassuolo form D L W D WHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Como vs Sassuolo: Como are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Como host Sassuolo in the Serie A on Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 at Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Our prediction for Como vs Sassuolo is Como to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Como or Draw at 1.21.

Como form

Como have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Sassuolo form

Sassuolo have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Como won 1, Sassuolo won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sassuolo 2, Como 1.

Our call

We expect Como to score about 1.9 goals and Sassuolo about 0.9. That points to Como to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Como or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Como to win and Over 2.5 at 2.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Como	Sassuolo
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	8
Draws	4	4
Losses	3	8
Goals scored	39	29
Goals conceded	17	26
Scored per game	1.9	1.4
Conceded per game	0.8	1.3
Home record	6W 2D 1L	7W 1D 2L
Away record	7W 2D 2L	1W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	40%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Como to win	59%	1.69	1.40	-17.2%
A Draw	21%	4.70	4.30	-8.5%
Sassuolo to win	15%	6.70	6.50	-3.0%
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.66	2.25	-15.5%
Under 3.5 goals	59%	1.70	1.57	-7.7%
Como -1.5	42%	2.37	2.05	-13.4%
Sassuolo +1.5	54%	1.87	1.63	-13.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.89
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.25
Both teams to score	50%	2.00
Como or Draw	85%	1.18
Sassuolo or Draw	38%	2.65
Como to win and Over 2.5	40%	2.53
Sassuolo to win and Over 2.5	8%	11.88
Como clean sheet	42%	2.35
Sassuolo clean sheet	14%	6.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.5%

1-011.2%

1-110.7%

2-19.8%

3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Como vs Sassuolo?

Our prediction for Como vs Sassuolo is Como to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Como or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Como vs Sassuolo?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Como to score 1.9 goals and Sassuolo 0.9.

Will both teams score in Como vs Sassuolo?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Como last 20 games and 15 of Sassuolo last 20.

How are Como playing?

How are Sassuolo playing?

What happened when Como and Sassuolo last met?

It ended Sassuolo 2, Como 1. In the last 2 meetings Como won 1 and Sassuolo won 1.

What is the best bet for Como vs Sassuolo?

Como or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Como against Sassuolo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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