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BrasileiraoThu 19 Nov, 00:30 Brazil time

Corinthians vs Botafogo prediction

Neo Química Arena

CorinthiansHome

1.55 : 0.99

expected goals

BotafogoAway

49%Corinthians

27%Draw

24%Botafogo

Eagle safe pickCorinthians or Draw

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Botafogo is Corinthians to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Corinthians or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction: Corinthians to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Corinthians 1.6, Botafogo 1.0
Best bet: Corinthians or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Corinthians or Draw

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Corinthians to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Corinthians 49%, the draw 27% and Botafogo 24%. The bookmakers agree and make Corinthians the favourite at 1.77.
2
Recent form
Corinthians took 5 points from their last 5 games and Botafogo took 7 from 5. Botafogo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Corinthians won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Botafogo won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Corinthians score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Botafogo score 1.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Corinthians games and 9 of Botafogo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Corinthians won 0 and Botafogo won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Botafogo 3, Corinthians 1.
6
The safest bet
Corinthians or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Corinthiansrecent form-1%

Corinthians form D W L D LBotafogo form W L L W DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Corinthians vs Botafogo: Corinthians are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Corinthians host Botafogo in the Brasileirao on Thu 19 Nov, 00:30 at Neo Química Arena. Our prediction for Corinthians vs Botafogo is Corinthians to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Corinthians or Draw at 1.30.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Botafogo form

Botafogo have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Corinthians won 0, Botafogo won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Botafogo 3, Corinthians 1.

Our call

We expect Corinthians to score about 1.6 goals and Botafogo about 1.0. That points to Corinthians to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Corinthians or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is Corinthians to win and Over 2.5 at 3.56.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Corinthians	Botafogo
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	6
Draws	6	6
Losses	10	8
Goals scored	20	20
Goals conceded	25	26
Scored per game	1.0	1.0
Conceded per game	1.3	1.3
Home record	3W 2D 5L	5W 4D 2L
Away record	1W 4D 5L	1W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Corinthians to win	46%	2.17	1.77	-18.4%
A Draw	26%	3.78	3.65	-3.4%
Botafogo to win	23%	4.35	4.10	-5.8%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.18	1.83	-16.0%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.11	1.83	-13.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.98
Both teams to score	50%	1.99
Corinthians or Draw	76%	1.31
Botafogo or Draw	51%	1.98
Corinthians to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.51
Botafogo to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.94
Corinthians clean sheet	37%	2.70
Botafogo clean sheet	21%	4.69

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%

1-011.5%

2-09.4%

2-19.4%

0-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Corinthians vs Botafogo?

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Botafogo is Corinthians to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Corinthians or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Corinthians vs Botafogo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Corinthians to score 1.6 goals and Botafogo 1.0.

Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Botafogo?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Corinthians last 20 games and 11 of Botafogo last 20.

How are Corinthians playing?

How are Botafogo playing?

What happened when Corinthians and Botafogo last met?

It ended Botafogo 3, Corinthians 1. In the last 2 meetings Corinthians won 0 and Botafogo won 1.

What is the best bet for Corinthians vs Botafogo?

Corinthians or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Corinthians against Botafogo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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