EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Copa Libertadores › Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata
Copa LibertadoresThu 17 Sept, 00:30 UTC

Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata prediction

Neo Química Arena

CorinthiansHome
1.13 : 0.72
expected goals
Estudiantes de La PlataAway
44%Corinthians
33%Draw
23%Estudiantes
Eagle safe pickCorinthians or Draw
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata is Corinthians to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Corinthians or Draw at 1.25.

Prediction
Corinthians to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Corinthians 1.1, Estudiantes de La Plata 0.7
Best bet
Corinthians or Draw at 1.25
Both teams to score
36%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Corinthians or Draw
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
17% chanceFair price 5.891 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Corinthians 44%, the draw 33% and Estudiantes de La Plata 23%. The bookmakers agree and make Corinthians the favourite at 1.87.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Corinthians took 4 points from their last 5 games and Estudiantes de La Plata took 5 from 5. Estudiantes de La Plata come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Corinthians won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Estudiantes de La Plata won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Corinthians score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.1. Estudiantes de La Plata score 1.0 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Corinthians games and 4 of Estudiantes de La Plata games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Corinthians won 0 and Estudiantes de La Plata won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Estudiantes de La Plata 1, Corinthians 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Corinthians or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Corinthiansrecent form-3%
  • Estudiantesrecent form+1%
  • Estudiantesrest between games-5%
Corinthians form D L L L WEstudiantes form W D L D WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata: Corinthians shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Corinthians host Estudiantes de La Plata in the Copa Libertadores on Thu 17 Sept, 00:30 at Neo Química Arena. Our prediction for Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata is Corinthians to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Corinthians or Draw at 1.25.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Estudiantes de La Plata form

Estudiantes de La Plata have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Corinthians won 0, Estudiantes de La Plata won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Estudiantes de La Plata 1, Corinthians 1.

Our call

We expect Corinthians to score about 1.1 goals and Estudiantes de La Plata about 0.7. That points to Corinthians to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Corinthians or Draw at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 5.89.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CorinthiansEstudiantes
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws66
Losses77
Goals scored2420
Goals conceded2115
Scored per game1.21.0
Conceded per game1.10.8
Home record5W 1D 4L4W 5D 2L
Away record2W 5D 3L3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets35%40%
Both teams scored55%25%
Over 2.5 goals40%20%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Corinthians to win42%2.381.87-21.5%
A Draw31%3.233.05-5.6%
Estudiantes de La Plata to win21%4.684.50-3.8%
Over 1.5 goals58%1.721.57-8.6%
Under 1.5 goals39%2.542.20-13.4%
Corinthians -0.547%2.141.80-15.9%
Estudiantes de La Plata +0.551%1.971.80-8.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals56%1.79
Over 2.5 goals28%3.54
Over 3.5 goals12%8.56
Both teams to score36%2.81
Corinthians or Draw77%1.29
Estudiantes de La Plata or Draw56%1.80
Corinthians to win and Over 2.517%5.72
Estudiantes de La Plata to win and Over 2.58%12.58
Corinthians clean sheet49%2.06
Estudiantes de La Plata clean sheet32%3.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-017.0%
0-016.5%
1-113.6%
0-110.6%
2-010.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata?

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata is Corinthians to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Corinthians or Draw at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Corinthians to score 1.1 goals and Estudiantes de La Plata 0.7.

Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata?

Both teams to score has a 36% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Corinthians last 20 games and 5 of Estudiantes de La Plata last 20.

How are Corinthians playing?

Corinthians have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Estudiantes de La Plata playing?

Estudiantes de La Plata have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Corinthians and Estudiantes de La Plata last met?

It ended Estudiantes de La Plata 1, Corinthians 1. In the last 1 meeting Corinthians won 0 and Estudiantes de La Plata won 0.

What is the best bet for Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata?

Corinthians or Draw at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Corinthians against Estudiantes. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.