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Predictions › Brazil › Corinthians vs Vitória
BrasileiraoMon 19 Oct, 23:00 Brazil time

Corinthians vs Vitória prediction

Neo Química Arena

CorinthiansHome
1.43 : 0.88
expected goals
VitóriaAway
49%Corinthians
28%Draw
22%Vitória
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Vitória is Corinthians to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Corinthians to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Corinthians 1.4, Vitória 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
13% chanceFair price 7.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Corinthians 49%, the draw 28% and Vitória 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Corinthians took 1 point from their last 5 games and Vitória took 7 from 5. Vitória come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Corinthians won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Vitória won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Corinthians score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.2. Vitória score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Corinthians games and 9 of Vitória games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Corinthians won 1 and Vitória won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Vitória 0, Corinthians 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Corinthiansrecent form-4%
  • Vitóriarecent form-1%
  • Corinthiansrest between games-2%
  • Vitóriarest between games-2%
Corinthians form D L L L DVitória form D L D W LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Corinthians vs Vitória: Corinthians are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Corinthians host Vitória in the Brasileirao on Mon 19 Oct, 23:00 at Neo Química Arena. Our prediction for Corinthians vs Vitória is Corinthians to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Vitória form

Vitória have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Corinthians won 1, Vitória won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Vitória 0, Corinthians 0.

Our call

We expect Corinthians to score about 1.4 goals and Vitória about 0.9. That points to Corinthians to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 7.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CorinthiansVitória
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws54
Losses109
Goals scored2023
Goals conceded2428
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game1.21.4
Home record3W 1D 6L7W 1D 3L
Away record2W 4D 4L0W 3D 6L
Clean sheets30%40%
Both teams scored55%35%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.46
Over 3.5 goals20%4.93
Both teams to score45%2.21
Corinthians or Draw78%1.29
Vitória or Draw51%1.97
Corinthians to win and Over 2.526%3.90
Vitória to win and Over 2.511%9.52
Corinthians clean sheet42%2.40
Vitória clean sheet24%4.19

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.5%
1-113.2%
0-010.7%
2-010.2%
2-18.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Corinthians vs Vitória?

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Vitória is Corinthians to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Corinthians vs Vitória?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Corinthians to score 1.4 goals and Vitória 0.9.

Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Vitória?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Corinthians last 20 games and 7 of Vitória last 20.

How are Corinthians playing?

Corinthians have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are Vitória playing?

Vitória have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Corinthians and Vitória last met?

It ended Vitória 0, Corinthians 0. In the last 2 meetings Corinthians won 1 and Vitória won 0.

What is the best bet for Corinthians vs Vitória?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Corinthians against Vitória. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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