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Predictions › Brazil › Coritiba vs Botafogo
BrasileiraoMon 12 Oct, 19:00 Brazil time

Coritiba vs Botafogo prediction

Couto Pereira

CoritibaHome
1.54 : 1.24
expected goals
BotafogoAway
44%Coritiba
27%Draw
30%Botafogo
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Botafogo is Coritiba to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Coritiba to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Coritiba 1.5, Botafogo 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Coritiba to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Coritiba 44%, the draw 27% and Botafogo 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Coritiba took 7 points from their last 5 games and Botafogo took 5 from 5. Coritiba come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Coritiba won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Botafogo won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Coritiba score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.8. Botafogo score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Coritiba games and 11 of Botafogo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Coritiba won 0 and Botafogo won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Botafogo 2, Coritiba 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Botafogorecent form-1%
Coritiba form L D L W WBotafogo form L W D D LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Coritiba vs Botafogo: Coritiba shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Coritiba host Botafogo in the Brasileirao on Mon 12 Oct, 19:00 at Couto Pereira. Our prediction for Coritiba vs Botafogo is Coritiba to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Coritiba form

Coritiba have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Botafogo form

Botafogo have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Coritiba won 0, Botafogo won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Botafogo 2, Coritiba 2.

Our call

We expect Coritiba to score about 1.5 goals and Botafogo about 1.2. That points to Coritiba to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Coritiba to win and Over 2.5 at 3.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CoritibaBotafogo
Games played2020
Wins66
Draws78
Losses76
Goals scored2827
Goals conceded3527
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.81.4
Home record4W 4D 3L3W 6D 2L
Away record2W 3D 4L3W 2D 4L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored65%70%
Over 2.5 goals65%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.31
Both teams to score56%1.77
Coritiba or Draw70%1.43
Botafogo or Draw56%1.77
Coritiba to win and Over 2.527%3.67
Botafogo to win and Over 2.518%5.51
Coritiba clean sheet29%3.45
Botafogo clean sheet22%4.65

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%
2-19.1%
1-08.9%
2-07.4%
1-27.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Coritiba vs Botafogo?

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Botafogo is Coritiba to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Coritiba vs Botafogo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Coritiba to score 1.5 goals and Botafogo 1.2.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Coritiba last 20 games and 14 of Botafogo last 20.

How are Coritiba playing?

Coritiba have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Botafogo playing?

Botafogo have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Coritiba and Botafogo last met?

It ended Botafogo 2, Coritiba 2. In the last 1 meeting Coritiba won 0 and Botafogo won 0.

What is the best bet for Coritiba vs Botafogo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Coritiba against Botafogo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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