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Predictions › Brazil › Coritiba vs Grêmio
BrasileiraoMon 26 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Coritiba vs Grêmio prediction

Couto Pereira

CoritibaHome
1.47 : 1.06
expected goals
GrêmioAway
46%Coritiba
28%Draw
27%Grêmio
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Grêmio is Coritiba to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Coritiba to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Coritiba 1.5, Grêmio 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Coritiba to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Coritiba 46%, the draw 28% and Grêmio 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Coritiba took 2 points from their last 5 games and Grêmio took 3 from 5. Grêmio come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Coritiba won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Grêmio won 0 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Coritiba score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.9. Grêmio score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Coritiba games and 8 of Grêmio games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Coritiba won 0 and Grêmio won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Grêmio 1, Coritiba 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Coritibarecent form-4%
  • Grêmiorecent form-3%
Coritiba form D L L D LGrêmio form D D D L LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Coritiba vs Grêmio: Coritiba are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Coritiba host Grêmio in the Brasileirao on Mon 26 Oct, 22:30 at Couto Pereira. Our prediction for Coritiba vs Grêmio is Coritiba to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Coritiba form

Coritiba have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Coritiba won 0, Grêmio won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Grêmio 1, Coritiba 0.

Our call

We expect Coritiba to score about 1.5 goals and Grêmio about 1.1. That points to Coritiba to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Coritiba to win and Over 2.5 at 3.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CoritibaGrêmio
Games played2020
Wins64
Draws67
Losses89
Goals scored2718
Goals conceded3826
Scored per game1.40.9
Conceded per game1.91.3
Home record4W 3D 3L4W 3D 3L
Away record2W 3D 5L0W 4D 6L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals70%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.38
Over 2.5 goals46%2.16
Over 3.5 goals25%4.03
Both teams to score51%1.96
Coritiba or Draw73%1.36
Grêmio or Draw54%1.84
Coritiba to win and Over 2.526%3.82
Grêmio to win and Over 2.514%6.96
Coritiba clean sheet35%2.89
Grêmio clean sheet23%4.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
1-011.0%
2-19.1%
0-08.7%
2-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Coritiba vs Grêmio?

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Grêmio is Coritiba to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Coritiba vs Grêmio?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Coritiba to score 1.5 goals and Grêmio 1.1.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Grêmio?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Coritiba last 20 games and 11 of Grêmio last 20.

How are Coritiba playing?

Coritiba have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Grêmio playing?

Grêmio have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Coritiba and Grêmio last met?

It ended Grêmio 1, Coritiba 0. In the last 1 meeting Coritiba won 0 and Grêmio won 1.

What is the best bet for Coritiba vs Grêmio?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Coritiba against Grêmio. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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