Predictions › Brazil › Coritiba vs Santos

BrasileiraoWed 18 Nov, 22:30 Brazil time

Coritiba vs Santos prediction

Couto Pereira

CoritibaHome

1.30 : 1.62

expected goals

SantosAway

30%Coritiba

26%Draw

44%Santos

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Santos is Santos to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction: Santos to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Coritiba 1.3, Santos 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.262 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Santos to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Coritiba 30%, the draw 26% and Santos 44%. The bookmakers agree and make Santos the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Coritiba took 4 points from their last 5 games and Santos took 5 from 5. Santos come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Coritiba won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Santos won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Coritiba score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.7. Santos score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Coritiba games and 14 of Santos games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Coritiba won 1 and Santos won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Santos 0, Coritiba 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Coritibarecent form-3%
Santosrecent form-1%

Coritiba form L W L L DSantos form L D D W LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Coritiba vs Santos: Santos shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Coritiba host Santos in the Brasileirao on Wed 18 Nov, 22:30 at Couto Pereira. Our prediction for Coritiba vs Santos is Santos to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Coritiba form

Coritiba have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Santos form

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Coritiba won 1, Santos won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Santos 0, Coritiba 3.

Our call

We expect Coritiba to score about 1.3 goals and Santos about 1.6. That points to Santos to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Santos to win and Over 2.5 at 3.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Coritiba	Santos
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	9
Draws	5	5
Losses	9	6
Goals scored	24	31
Goals conceded	34	27
Scored per game	1.2	1.6
Conceded per game	1.7	1.4
Home record	4W 3D 4L	3W 5D 2L
Away record	2W 2D 5L	6W 0D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Coritiba to win	30%	3.37	3.15	-6.5%
A Draw	25%	3.98	3.50	-12.0%
Santos to win	42%	2.37	2.10	-11.3%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.98	1.67	-15.8%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	2.35	2.05	-12.7%
Coritiba +0.5	50%	1.99	1.67	-16.3%
Santos -0.5	43%	2.33	2.00	-14.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.79
Over 3.5 goals	33%	2.99
Both teams to score	59%	1.69
Coritiba or Draw	56%	1.79
Santos or Draw	70%	1.43
Coritiba to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.21
Santos to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.44
Coritiba clean sheet	20%	5.04
Santos clean sheet	27%	3.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%

1-29.2%

0-18.1%

2-17.4%

0-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Coritiba vs Santos?

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Santos is Santos to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Coritiba vs Santos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Coritiba to score 1.3 goals and Santos 1.6.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Santos?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Coritiba last 20 games and 14 of Santos last 20.

How are Coritiba playing?

How are Santos playing?

What happened when Coritiba and Santos last met?

It ended Santos 0, Coritiba 3. In the last 1 meeting Coritiba won 1 and Santos won 0.

What is the best bet for Coritiba vs Santos?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Coritiba against Santos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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