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Predictions › Brazil › Cruzeiro vs Bahia
BrasileiraoFri 6 Nov, 00:30 Brazil time

Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction

Estadio Mineirão

CruzeiroHome
1.74 : 0.95
expected goals
BahiaAway
55%Cruzeiro
25%Draw
20%Bahia
Eagle safe pickCruzeiro or Draw
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Bahia is Cruzeiro to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.24.

Prediction
Cruzeiro to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Cruzeiro 1.7, Bahia 0.9
Best bet
Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.24
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Cruzeiro or Draw
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.031 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cruzeiro 55%, the draw 25% and Bahia 20%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cruzeiro took 12 points from their last 5 games and Bahia took 4 from 5. Cruzeiro come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cruzeiro won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Bahia won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cruzeiro score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.2. Bahia score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Cruzeiro games and 10 of Bahia games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Cruzeiro won 2 and Bahia won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Bahia 1, Cruzeiro 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Cruzeiro or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cruzeirorecent form+3%
  • Bahiarecent form-3%
  • Bahiarest between games-2%
Cruzeiro form D W L W WBahia form D L W L LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cruzeiro vs Bahia: Cruzeiro are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cruzeiro host Bahia in the Brasileirao on Fri 6 Nov, 00:30 at Estadio Mineirão. Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Bahia is Cruzeiro to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.24.

Cruzeiro form

Cruzeiro have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Bahia form

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Cruzeiro won 2, Bahia won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Bahia 1, Cruzeiro 2.

Our call

We expect Cruzeiro to score about 1.7 goals and Bahia about 0.9. That points to Cruzeiro to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.24. Our bold bet is Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.5 at 3.03.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CruzeiroBahia
Games played2020
Wins127
Draws38
Losses55
Goals scored3728
Goals conceded2426
Scored per game1.91.4
Conceded per game1.21.3
Home record7W 2D 1L5W 3D 2L
Away record5W 1D 4L2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.32
Over 2.5 goals50%1.98
Over 3.5 goals28%3.51
Both teams to score51%1.95
Cruzeiro or Draw80%1.25
Bahia or Draw45%2.24
Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.534%2.94
Bahia to win and Over 2.511%9.17
Cruzeiro clean sheet39%2.59
Bahia clean sheet17%5.72

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
1-011.1%
2-010.3%
2-19.8%
0-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Bahia is Cruzeiro to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Cruzeiro to score 1.7 goals and Bahia 0.9.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Cruzeiro last 20 games and 13 of Bahia last 20.

How are Cruzeiro playing?

Cruzeiro have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Bahia playing?

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Cruzeiro and Bahia last met?

It ended Bahia 1, Cruzeiro 2. In the last 2 meetings Cruzeiro won 2 and Bahia won 0.

What is the best bet for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cruzeiro against Bahia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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