Predictions › Brazil › Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras

BrasileiraoWed 18 Nov, 23:30 Brazil time

Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras prediction

Estadio Mineirão

CruzeiroHome

1.29 : 1.41

expected goals

PalmeirasAway

34%Cruzeiro

27%Draw

39%Palmeiras

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Palmeiras to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.3, Palmeiras 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.711 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Cruzeiro 34%, the draw 27% and Palmeiras 39%. The bookmakers agree and make Palmeiras the favourite at 2.40.
2
Recent form
Cruzeiro took 12 points from their last 5 games and Palmeiras took 10 from 5. Cruzeiro come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Cruzeiro won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Palmeiras won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Cruzeiro score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.2. Palmeiras score 1.8 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Cruzeiro games and 7 of Palmeiras games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Cruzeiro won 0 and Palmeiras won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Palmeiras 1, Cruzeiro 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Cruzeirorecent form+4%
Palmeirasrecent form+3%

Cruzeiro form W W W W LPalmeiras form L W W D WHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras: Palmeiras shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cruzeiro host Palmeiras in the Brasileirao on Wed 18 Nov, 23:30 at Estadio Mineirão. Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Cruzeiro form

Cruzeiro have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Cruzeiro won 0, Palmeiras won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Palmeiras 1, Cruzeiro 1.

Our call

We expect Cruzeiro to score about 1.3 goals and Palmeiras about 1.4. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.71.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Cruzeiro	Palmeiras
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	11
Draws	2	6
Losses	5	3
Goals scored	38	35
Goals conceded	24	13
Scored per game	1.9	1.8
Conceded per game	1.2	0.7
Home record	7W 2D 1L	7W 2D 1L
Away record	6W 0D 4L	4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets	25%	55%
Both teams scored	70%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Cruzeiro to win	33%	3.03	2.70	-10.8%
A Draw	27%	3.74	3.40	-9.0%
Palmeiras to win	38%	2.62	2.40	-8.4%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.05	1.69	-17.5%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.26	2.00	-11.5%
Cruzeiro +0.5	54%	1.84	1.51	-17.7%
Palmeiras -0.5	39%	2.57	2.25	-12.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	50%	1.98
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.51
Both teams to score	55%	1.80
Cruzeiro or Draw	61%	1.64
Palmeiras or Draw	66%	1.51
Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.99
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.23
Cruzeiro clean sheet	24%	4.08
Palmeiras clean sheet	28%	3.62

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

0-18.8%

1-28.6%

1-08.0%

2-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Cruzeiro to score 1.3 goals and Palmeiras 1.4.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Cruzeiro last 20 games and 8 of Palmeiras last 20.

How are Cruzeiro playing?

How are Palmeiras playing?

What happened when Cruzeiro and Palmeiras last met?

It ended Palmeiras 1, Cruzeiro 1. In the last 2 meetings Cruzeiro won 0 and Palmeiras won 0.

What is the best bet for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cruzeiro against Palmeiras. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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