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BrasileiraoThu 8 Oct, 00:30 Brazil time

Cruzeiro vs São Paulo prediction

Estadio Mineirão

CruzeiroHome

1.63 : 0.94

expected goals

São PauloAway

53%Cruzeiro

26%Draw

21%São Paulo

Eagle safe pickCruzeiro or Draw

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo is Cruzeiro to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction: Cruzeiro to win
Chance: 53%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.6, São Paulo 0.9
Best bet: Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Cruzeiro or Draw

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Cruzeiro 53%, the draw 26% and São Paulo 21%. The bookmakers agree and make Cruzeiro the favourite at 1.87.
2
Recent form
Cruzeiro took 9 points from their last 5 games and São Paulo took 9 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Cruzeiro won 5 of their last 9 games at home. São Paulo won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Cruzeiro score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. São Paulo score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Cruzeiro games and 8 of São Paulo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Cruzeiro won 0 and São Paulo won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended São Paulo 4, Cruzeiro 1.
6
The safest bet
Cruzeiro or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Cruzeirorecent form-1%

Cruzeiro form W L W L LSão Paulo form W D L L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cruzeiro vs São Paulo: Cruzeiro are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cruzeiro host São Paulo in the Brasileirao on Thu 8 Oct, 00:30 at Estadio Mineirão. Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo is Cruzeiro to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.30.

Cruzeiro form

Cruzeiro have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Cruzeiro won 0, São Paulo won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished São Paulo 4, Cruzeiro 1.

Our call

We expect Cruzeiro to score about 1.6 goals and São Paulo about 0.9. That points to Cruzeiro to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.5 at 3.40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Cruzeiro	São Paulo
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	5
Draws	5	5
Losses	5	10
Goals scored	32	22
Goals conceded	23	26
Scored per game	1.6	1.1
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	5W 2D 2L	5W 3D 2L
Away record	5W 3D 3L	0W 2D 8L
Clean sheets	15%	15%
Both teams scored	80%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Cruzeiro to win	50%	2.01	1.87	-7.2%
A Draw	25%	3.96	3.40	-14.1%
São Paulo to win	21%	4.84	3.90	-19.4%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.24	1.91	-14.6%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.77	-13.3%
Cruzeiro -0.5	48%	2.10	1.80	-14.1%
São Paulo +0.5	46%	2.17	1.80	-17.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.12
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.90
Both teams to score	50%	2.02
Cruzeiro or Draw	79%	1.27
São Paulo or Draw	47%	2.12
Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.25
São Paulo to win and Over 2.5	11%	8.97
Cruzeiro clean sheet	39%	2.56
São Paulo clean sheet	20%	5.08

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

1-011.8%

2-010.2%

2-19.5%

0-08.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo is Cruzeiro to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Cruzeiro to score 1.6 goals and São Paulo 0.9.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Cruzeiro last 20 games and 12 of São Paulo last 20.

How are Cruzeiro playing?

How are São Paulo playing?

What happened when Cruzeiro and São Paulo last met?

It ended São Paulo 4, Cruzeiro 1. In the last 1 meeting Cruzeiro won 0 and São Paulo won 1.

What is the best bet for Cruzeiro vs São Paulo?

Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cruzeiro against São Paulo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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