Predictions › United Kingdom › Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Premier LeagueSun 11 Oct, 14:00 United Kingdom time

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest prediction

Selhurst Park

Crystal PalaceHome

1.27 : 1.46

expected goals

Nottingham ForestAway

32%C Palace

27%Draw

41%Nottm Forest

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest is Nottingham Forest to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Nottingham Forest to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.3, Nottingham Forest 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Nottingham Forest to win

38% chancePrice 8/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Crystal Palace 32%, the draw 27% and Nottingham Forest 41%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Crystal Palace the favourite at 8/5, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Crystal Palace took 10 points from their last 5 games and Nottingham Forest took 5 from 5. Crystal Palace come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Crystal Palace won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Nottingham Forest won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Crystal Palace score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Nottingham Forest score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Crystal Palace games and 9 of Nottingham Forest games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Crystal Palace won 0 and Nottingham Forest won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Nottingham Forest 1, Crystal Palace 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

C Palacerecent form+3%
Nottm Forestrecent form-1%

C Palace form D W L W WNottm Forest form L W D D LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Crystal Palace host Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 at Selhurst Park. Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest is Nottingham Forest to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Crystal Palace form

Crystal Palace have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Nottingham Forest form

Nottingham Forest have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Crystal Palace won 0, Nottingham Forest won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Nottingham Forest 1, Crystal Palace 1.

Our call

We expect Crystal Palace to score about 1.3 goals and Nottingham Forest about 1.5. That points to Nottingham Forest to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Nottingham Forest to win at 8/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	C Palace	Nottm Forest
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	8
Draws	4	7
Losses	8	5
Goals scored	31	29
Goals conceded	31	21
Scored per game	1.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.6	1.1
Home record	6W 2D 3L	3W 5D 3L
Away record	2W 2D 5L	5W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Crystal Palace to win	31%	11/5	8/5	-19.1%
A Draw	26%	11/4	12/5	-11.9%
Nottingham Forest to win	38%	8/5	8/5	-0.4%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	6/5	10/11	-10.6%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	21/20	4/5	-14.6%
Crystal Palace -0.5	34%	15/8	7/5	-17.6%
Nottingham Forest +0.5	63%	4/7	4/9	-8.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	3/10
Over 2.5 goals	51%	10/11
Over 3.5 goals	29%	12/5
Both teams to score	56%	4/5
Crystal Palace or Draw	59%	4/6
Nottingham Forest or Draw	68%	1/2
Crystal Palace to win and Over 2.5	19%	4/1
Nottingham Forest to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Crystal Palace clean sheet	23%	10/3
Nottingham Forest clean sheet	28%	13/5

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%

1-28.8%

0-18.8%

2-17.7%

1-07.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?

Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest is Nottingham Forest to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Crystal Palace to score 1.3 goals and Nottingham Forest 1.5.

Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Crystal Palace last 20 games and 10 of Nottingham Forest last 20.

How are Crystal Palace playing?

How are Nottingham Forest playing?

What happened when Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest last met?

It ended Nottingham Forest 1, Crystal Palace 1. In the last 1 meeting Crystal Palace won 0 and Nottingham Forest won 0.

What is the best bet for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in C Palace against Nottm Forest. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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