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Predictions › Peru › Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1Sun 11 Oct, 23:30 Peru time

Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima prediction

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Cusco FCHome
1.22 : 0.75
expected goals
Alianza LimaAway
47%Cusco
31%Draw
22%Alianza Lima
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima is Cusco FC to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
Cusco FC to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Cusco FC 1.2, Alianza Lima 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
16% chanceFair price 6.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cusco FC 47%, the draw 31% and Alianza Lima 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cusco FC took 9 points from their last 5 games and Alianza Lima took 5 from 5. Cusco FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cusco FC won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Alianza Lima won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cusco FC score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.4. Alianza Lima score 1.7 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Cusco FC games and 7 of Alianza Lima games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Cusco FC won 0 and Alianza Lima won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Alianza Lima 8, Cusco FC 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cuscorecent form+1%
  • Alianza Limarecent form-1%
Cusco form W L W W LAlianza Lima form W L D L DHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima: Cusco FC are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cusco FC host Alianza Lima in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 11 Oct, 23:30 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Our prediction for Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima is Cusco FC to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Cusco FC form

Cusco FC have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Alianza Lima form

Alianza Lima have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Cusco FC won 0, Alianza Lima won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza Lima 8, Cusco FC 0.

Our call

We expect Cusco FC to score about 1.2 goals and Alianza Lima about 0.8. That points to Cusco FC to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CuscoAlianza Lima
Games played2020
Wins911
Draws36
Losses83
Goals scored3034
Goals conceded2814
Scored per game1.51.7
Conceded per game1.40.7
Home record6W 2D 2L8W 1D 2L
Away record3W 1D 6L3W 5D 1L
Clean sheets15%40%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals59%1.68
Over 2.5 goals32%3.16
Over 3.5 goals14%7.24
Both teams to score38%2.63
Cusco FC or Draw78%1.28
Alianza Lima or Draw53%1.87
Cusco FC to win and Over 2.520%5.01
Alianza Lima to win and Over 2.58%11.88
Cusco FC clean sheet47%2.12
Alianza Lima clean sheet29%3.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.2%
0-014.7%
1-113.5%
2-010.4%
0-19.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima?

Our prediction for Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima is Cusco FC to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Cusco FC to score 1.2 goals and Alianza Lima 0.8.

Will both teams score in Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Cusco FC last 20 games and 10 of Alianza Lima last 20.

How are Cusco FC playing?

Cusco FC have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Alianza Lima playing?

Alianza Lima have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Cusco FC and Alianza Lima last met?

It ended Alianza Lima 8, Cusco FC 0. In the last 1 meeting Cusco FC won 0 and Alianza Lima won 1.

What is the best bet for Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cusco against Alianza Lima. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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