Predictions › United States › D.C. United vs Red Bull New York

MLSWed 14 Oct, 19:30 United States time

D.C. United vs Red Bull New York prediction

Audi Field

D.C. UnitedHome

1.23 : 1.35

expected goals

Red Bull New YorkAway

33%D.C. United

28%Draw

39%Red Bull NY

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

-303

Quick answer

Our prediction for D.C. United vs Red Bull New York is Red Bull New York to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -303.

Prediction: Red Bull New York to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: D.C. United 1.2, Red Bull New York 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at -303
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price -3032 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price +6501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives D.C. United 33%, the draw 28% and Red Bull New York 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
D.C. United took 6 points from their last 5 games and Red Bull New York took 7 from 5. Red Bull New York come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
D.C. United won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Red Bull New York won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
D.C. United score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.7. Red Bull New York score 1.1 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of D.C. United games and 10 of Red Bull New York games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, D.C. United won 0 and Red Bull New York won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Red Bull New York 4, D.C. United 4.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

D.C. United form D L D W DRed Bull NY form L W W L DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

D.C. United vs Red Bull New York: Red Bull New York shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

D.C. United host Red Bull New York in the MLS on Wed 14 Oct, 19:30 at Audi Field. Our prediction for D.C. United vs Red Bull New York is Red Bull New York to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -303.

D.C. United form

D.C. United have 4 wins, 11 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Red Bull New York form

Red Bull New York have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. D.C. United won 0, Red Bull New York won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Red Bull New York 4, D.C. United 4.

Our call

We expect D.C. United to score about 1.2 goals and Red Bull New York about 1.4. That points to Red Bull New York to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at -303. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at +650.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	D.C. United	Red Bull NY
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	6
Draws	11	4
Losses	5	10
Goals scored	30	23
Goals conceded	34	36
Scored per game	1.5	1.1
Conceded per game	1.7	1.8
Home record	3W 5D 3L	2W 3D 5L
Away record	1W 6D 2L	4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	70%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	-279
Over 2.5 goals	48%	+110
Over 3.5 goals	26%	+285
Both teams to score	53%	-114
D.C. United or Draw	61%	-157
Red Bull New York or Draw	67%	-202
D.C. United to win and Over 2.5	19%	+431
Red Bull New York to win and Over 2.5	23%	+344
D.C. United clean sheet	26%	+287
Red Bull New York clean sheet	29%	+241

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

0-19.5%

1-08.6%

1-28.5%

0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win D.C. United vs Red Bull New York?

Our prediction for D.C. United vs Red Bull New York is Red Bull New York to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -303.

What is the score prediction for D.C. United vs Red Bull New York?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect D.C. United to score 1.2 goals and Red Bull New York 1.4.

Will both teams score in D.C. United vs Red Bull New York?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of D.C. United last 20 games and 11 of Red Bull New York last 20.

How are D.C. United playing?

How are Red Bull New York playing?

What happened when D.C. United and Red Bull New York last met?

It ended Red Bull New York 4, D.C. United 4. In the last 1 meeting D.C. United won 0 and Red Bull New York won 0.

What is the best bet for D.C. United vs Red Bull New York?

Under 3.5 goals at -303, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in D.C. United against Red Bull NY. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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